Abstract:
Objective To analyze the morbidity of thyroid cancer during 2011-2016 and the mortality of thyroid cancer during 2002-2016 in Ningbo, and predict the morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in Ningbo. Methods The surveillance data of tumor during 2011-2016 and the data of all causes of deaths during 2002-2016 in Ningbo were used to calculate the reported morbidity rate and mortality rate of thyroid cancer, age, urban area and rural area specific morbidity and mortality rates of thyroid cancer and the standardized morbidity and mortality rates of thyroid cancer based on China's population in 2010. Gray modeling software was used to predict the morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in Ningbo. Results The reported thyroid cancer morbidity rate was 34.28/100 000 during 2011-2016 in Ningbo (standardized morbidity rate:29.75/100 000), the morbidity rate in females was 53.47/100 000 (standardized morbidity rate:46.30/100 000), and the morbidity rate in males was 14.96/100 000 (standardized morbidity rate:13.25/100 000).The morbidity rate was 48.55/100 000 in urban area (standardized morbidity rate:38.24/100 000) and 25.06/100 000 in rural area (standardized mortality rate:18.74/100 000). The mortality rate of thyroid cancer was 0.43/100 000 during 2002-2016 (standardized mortality rate:0.33/100 000), the mortality rate in females was 0.49/100 000 (standardized mortality rate:0.38/100 000), and the mortality rate in males was 0.37/100 000 (standardized mortality rate:0.28/100 000). The mortality rate was 0.41/100 000 in urban area (standardized mortality rate:0.31/100 000) and 0.25/100 000 in rural area (standardized mortality rate:0.27/100 000). By using GM (1,1) prediction model, the predicted morbidity rate was 45.93/100 000 and the mortality rate was 0.88/100 000. By using Verhulst prediction mode, the predicted morbidity rate was 42.51/100 000 and the mortality rate was 0.87/100 000. Conclusion The reported morbidity rate of thyroid cancer was much higher than the reported mortality rate in Ningbo. Both the morbidity rate and the mortality rate were higher in females than in males and in rural area than in urban area. The overall mortality rate increased with age and decreased slightly after age of 80 years. The reported morbidity rate first increased then decreased and peaked in age group 30-64 years. GM (1,1) and Verhulst prediction models can be used to predict the morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer to obtain the scientific evidence for the prevention and control of thyroid cancer.