王永, 李思萱, 李辉, 朱银潮, 崔军, 张赞赞, 张涛. 浙江省宁波市甲状腺癌发病、死亡现况和预测分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2017, 32(10/11): 845-850. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.10/11.015
引用本文: 王永, 李思萱, 李辉, 朱银潮, 崔军, 张赞赞, 张涛. 浙江省宁波市甲状腺癌发病、死亡现况和预测分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2017, 32(10/11): 845-850. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.10/11.015
WANG Yong, LI Si-xuan, LI Hui, ZHU Yin-chao, CUI Jun, ZHANG Zan-zan, ZHANG Tao. Current and predicted morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in Ningbo[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2017, 32(10/11): 845-850. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.10/11.015
Citation: WANG Yong, LI Si-xuan, LI Hui, ZHU Yin-chao, CUI Jun, ZHANG Zan-zan, ZHANG Tao. Current and predicted morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in Ningbo[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2017, 32(10/11): 845-850. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.10/11.015

浙江省宁波市甲状腺癌发病、死亡现况和预测分析

Current and predicted morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in Ningbo

  • 摘要: 目的 分析浙江省宁波市2011-2016年甲状腺癌报告发病情况及2002-2016年甲状腺癌死亡情况,预测未来宁波市甲状腺癌报告发病与死亡情况。方法 采用宁波市2011-2016年肿瘤发病监测和2002-2016年全死因监测数据,分别计算甲状腺癌报告发病(死亡)率,年龄别报告发病(死亡)率,城乡报告发病(死亡)率和以2010年中国人口做标化的报告发病(死亡)率;应用灰色建模软件对宁波市甲状腺癌报告发病和死亡情况进行预测。结果 2011-2016年间宁波市报告甲状腺癌报告发病率为34.28/10万(标准化率29.75/10万),女性53.47/10万(标准化率46.30/10万),男性14.96/10万(标准化率13.25/10万)。城市48.55/10万(标准化率38.24/10万),农村25.06/10万(标准化率18.74/10万)。2002-2016年间甲状腺死亡率为0.43/10万(标准化率0.33/10万),女性0.49/10万(标准化率0.38/10万),男性0.37/10万(标准化率0.28/10万),城市为0.41/10万(标准化率0.31/10万),农村0.25/10万(标准化率0.27/10万)。GM(1,1)预测模型的预测报告发病率为45.93/10万,死亡率0.88/10万,Verhulst预测模型的预测报告发病率为42.51/10万,死亡率0.87/10万。结论 宁波市人群甲状腺癌报告发病率远高于报告死亡率,两者均为女性高于男性,城市高于农村。死亡率总体随年龄上升而增加,80岁以后稍有下降,报告发病率先升后降,30~64岁是报告发病高峰年龄。GM(1,1)和Verhulst模型可预测甲状腺癌报告发病(死亡)率的变化趋势,为甲状腺癌的预防控制提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze the morbidity of thyroid cancer during 2011-2016 and the mortality of thyroid cancer during 2002-2016 in Ningbo, and predict the morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in Ningbo. Methods The surveillance data of tumor during 2011-2016 and the data of all causes of deaths during 2002-2016 in Ningbo were used to calculate the reported morbidity rate and mortality rate of thyroid cancer, age, urban area and rural area specific morbidity and mortality rates of thyroid cancer and the standardized morbidity and mortality rates of thyroid cancer based on China's population in 2010. Gray modeling software was used to predict the morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in Ningbo. Results The reported thyroid cancer morbidity rate was 34.28/100 000 during 2011-2016 in Ningbo (standardized morbidity rate:29.75/100 000), the morbidity rate in females was 53.47/100 000 (standardized morbidity rate:46.30/100 000), and the morbidity rate in males was 14.96/100 000 (standardized morbidity rate:13.25/100 000).The morbidity rate was 48.55/100 000 in urban area (standardized morbidity rate:38.24/100 000) and 25.06/100 000 in rural area (standardized mortality rate:18.74/100 000). The mortality rate of thyroid cancer was 0.43/100 000 during 2002-2016 (standardized mortality rate:0.33/100 000), the mortality rate in females was 0.49/100 000 (standardized mortality rate:0.38/100 000), and the mortality rate in males was 0.37/100 000 (standardized mortality rate:0.28/100 000). The mortality rate was 0.41/100 000 in urban area (standardized mortality rate:0.31/100 000) and 0.25/100 000 in rural area (standardized mortality rate:0.27/100 000). By using GM (1,1) prediction model, the predicted morbidity rate was 45.93/100 000 and the mortality rate was 0.88/100 000. By using Verhulst prediction mode, the predicted morbidity rate was 42.51/100 000 and the mortality rate was 0.87/100 000. Conclusion The reported morbidity rate of thyroid cancer was much higher than the reported mortality rate in Ningbo. Both the morbidity rate and the mortality rate were higher in females than in males and in rural area than in urban area. The overall mortality rate increased with age and decreased slightly after age of 80 years. The reported morbidity rate first increased then decreased and peaked in age group 30-64 years. GM (1,1) and Verhulst prediction models can be used to predict the morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer to obtain the scientific evidence for the prevention and control of thyroid cancer.

     

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