孟玲, 李超, 汪立杰, 任婧寰, 罗莉, 夏愔愔, 王秦, 孙校金, 涂文校, 洪志恒, 倪大新, 向妮娟. 2017年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2017, 32(12): 907-910. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.12.003
引用本文: 孟玲, 李超, 汪立杰, 任婧寰, 罗莉, 夏愔愔, 王秦, 孙校金, 涂文校, 洪志恒, 倪大新, 向妮娟. 2017年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2017, 32(12): 907-910. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.12.003
MENG Ling, LI Chao, WANG Li-jie, REN Jing-huan, LUO Li, XIA Yin-yin, WANG Qin, SUN Xiao-jin, TU Wen-xiao, HONG Zhi-heng, NI Da-xin, XIANG Ni-juan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, December 2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2017, 32(12): 907-910. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.12.003
Citation: MENG Ling, LI Chao, WANG Li-jie, REN Jing-huan, LUO Li, XIA Yin-yin, WANG Qin, SUN Xiao-jin, TU Wen-xiao, HONG Zhi-heng, NI Da-xin, XIANG Ni-juan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, December 2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2017, 32(12): 907-910. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.12.003

2017年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, December 2017

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2017年12月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计12月全国总报告事件数和病例数将与11月相当,主要以发生在学校的水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、手足口病、其他感染性腹泻病等传染病暴发事件为主。我国内地将继续出现人感染H7N9及其他亚型禽流感或动物流感散发病例。流行性感冒活动水平将继续上升。病毒性腹泻暴发可能会持续增加。仍可能出现学校结核病聚集性疫情。非职业性一氧化碳中毒和重污染天气(雾霾)相关健康事件均处于冬季高发季节。结论 2017年12月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势将与11月相当;需关注人感染禽流感、流行性感冒、病毒性腹泻、结核病等传染病疫情和非职业性一氧化碳中毒、重污染天气(雾霾)相关事件引发的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in December 2017 based on the analysis of data both at home and abroad. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the global disease information and surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in December would be similar to that in November 2017, mainly the outbreaks of communicable diseases in schools, such as varicella, influenza, mumps, hand foot and mouth disease and other infectious diarrheal diseases. Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) and other subtype viruses or other animal influenza virus would continue to occur. The incidence level of seasonal influenza would increase. More viral diarrhea outbreaks might occur. Tuberculosis (TB) clusters might be found in schools. It is the high incidence season of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning and air pollution (smog) related health events.Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in December would be similar to that in November 2017. Close attention should be paid to the public health risks of human infection with avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, viral diarrhea, TB, non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning and smog related health events.

     

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