洪志恒, 王霄晔, 任瑞琦, 牟笛, 刘小波, 李超, 常昭瑞, 袁媛, 孟玲, 涂文校, 倪大新, 向妮娟. 2017年5月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2017, 32(5): 360-364. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.05.004
引用本文: 洪志恒, 王霄晔, 任瑞琦, 牟笛, 刘小波, 李超, 常昭瑞, 袁媛, 孟玲, 涂文校, 倪大新, 向妮娟. 2017年5月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2017, 32(5): 360-364. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.05.004
HONG Zhi-heng, WANG Xiao-ye, REN Rui-qi, MU Di, LIU Xiao-bo, LI Chao, CHANG Zhao-rui, YUAN Yuan, MENG Ling, TU Wen-xiao, NI Da-xin, XIANG Ni-juan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, May 2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2017, 32(5): 360-364. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.05.004
Citation: HONG Zhi-heng, WANG Xiao-ye, REN Rui-qi, MU Di, LIU Xiao-bo, LI Chao, CHANG Zhao-rui, YUAN Yuan, MENG Ling, TU Wen-xiao, NI Da-xin, XIANG Ni-juan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, May 2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2017, 32(5): 360-364. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.05.004

2017年5月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, May 2017

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2017年5月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 预计5月全国报告事件数和病例数将继续呈上升态势,可能达到全年最高峰。4月下旬人感染H7N9禽流感发病并未出现进一步下降,预计5月仍可能维持较高水平。全国手足口病流行强度将逐渐增加。随着气温升高,我国周边国家蚊媒传染病疫情呈上升趋势,我国出现登革热、寨卡病毒病等输入性病例的可能性也随之升高,南方重点省份存在输入后发生本地传播或小规模聚集性病例的可能,但出现较大规模暴发疫情的可能性低。要继续注意黄热病等疾病输入的可能性。结论 预计全国2017年5月全国总报告事件数和病例数将较4月有所上升。需重点关注人感染禽流感、蚊媒传染病、手足口病及食物中毒等的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in May 2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in provincial centers for disease control and prevention were invited to attended this video conference. Results It is predicted that the reported public health emergencies and disease case number would continue to increase, and the annual peak might occur in May. The incidence of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) showed no further decline in late April, so the incidence of H7N9 virus infection would remain at a high level in May. The incidence of hand foot and mouth disease would increase gradually. Due to the warming climate and the increased incidence of mosquito borne diseases in neighboring countries of China, the risk of importation of dengue fever and Zika virus disease has increased and small local outbreaks would occurred in southern provinces. but the possibility of large scale outbreaks is very low. Close attention should be paid to the possible importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome and yellow fever. Conclusion It is predicted that the reported public health emergency and disease case numbers would be higher in May than in April, 2017. It is necessary to pay more attention to the public health risks of human infection with avian influenza virus, mosquito-borne diseases, hand foot and mouth disease, and food poisoning.

     

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