涂文校, 牟笛, 刘小波, 王霄晔, 任婧寰, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 向妮娟. 2018年7月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(7): 535-538. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.07.003
引用本文: 涂文校, 牟笛, 刘小波, 王霄晔, 任婧寰, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 向妮娟. 2018年7月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(7): 535-538. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.07.003
Wenxiao Tu, Di Mou, Xiaobo Liu, Xiaoye Wang, Jinghuan Ren, Ling Meng, Zhiheng Hong, Nijuan Xiang. Risk assessment of public health emergency concerned in mainland China, July 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(7): 535-538. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.07.003
Citation: Wenxiao Tu, Di Mou, Xiaobo Liu, Xiaoye Wang, Jinghuan Ren, Ling Meng, Zhiheng Hong, Nijuan Xiang. Risk assessment of public health emergency concerned in mainland China, July 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(7): 535-538. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.07.003

2018年7月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergency concerned in mainland China, July 2018

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2018年7月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 根据既往监测数据,预计2018年7月全国报告事件数和病例数将继续下降,主要是因为学校放假和季节变化因素导致的水痘、流行性腮腺炎等常见传染病事件下降所致,而食物中毒和高温中暑事件将有所上升。 根据既往5年事件发生规律,7月传染病事件可能以手足口病、登革热、感染性腹泻病、布鲁氏菌病等病种为多见。 登革热输入风险将持续上升,有埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊分布地区的本地传播风险也加大,尤其是南方省份的中心城市、口岸地区。 据气象部门预测,7月长江上游、黄河中游、海河流域等地降水增多,可能有2 ~ 3个台风登陆我国,需关注可能发生洪涝灾害地区的灾后防病工作。 国际上,肯尼亚裂谷热、刚果民主共和国裂谷热和巴西麻疹输入我国风险低。
    结论 预计2018年7月我国大陆发生的突发公共卫生事件数将处于正常的季节性下降。境内需重点关注登革热、食物中毒和高温中暑事件,一般关注洪涝灾害;无特别需要关注的境外突发公共卫生事件。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones from foreign countries, which might occur in mainland of China in July 2018.
    Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.
    Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of infectious diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies of July 2018 would continue to decrease, mainly caused by the decreasing of chickenpox, mumps and other common infectious diseases outbreaks among students as the summer vacation is coming. However, the food poisoning and heat stroke will rise. According to the occurrence of the previous 5 years, the outbreak events of infectious diseases in July may be mainly caused by hand, foot and mouth disease, dengue fever, infectious diarrhea and brucellosis. The importation risk of dengue will continue to rise, and the risk of local transmission of dengue will also rise among those areas where aedes aegypti and aedes albopictus are endemic, particularly in the metropolises of Southern China and the areas which have points-of-entry. According to the meteorological forecast, the risk of flood will increase in the upper reaches of the Yangtze river, the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the basin of Haihe river, and there may be two or three typhoons landing on China; so disease prevention and control after flooding should be concerned in those possible flood areas. Internationally, the risks of importation of Rift Valley fever from Kenya, ebola virus disease from the Democratic Republic of Congo and measles from Brazil are low.
    Conclusion It is expected that the public health emergencies in mainland of China in July 2018 will be on the normal seasonal decline. However, particular attention should be paid to the dengue fever, food poisoning and heat stroke, and close attention should be paid to the disease prevention and control after flooding. There is no special foreign public health events which should be concerned in mainland of China in July 2018.

     

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