魏凤英, 王金杰, 徐铣明, 高建召, 王博灵, 马驰宇, 彭志行, 靳祯, 黄森忠. 全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势预测[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(6): 467-472. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.06.004
引用本文: 魏凤英, 王金杰, 徐铣明, 高建召, 王博灵, 马驰宇, 彭志行, 靳祯, 黄森忠. 全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势预测[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(6): 467-472. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.06.004
Fengying Wei, Jinjie Wang, Xianming Xu, Jianzhao Gao, Boling Wang, Chiyu Ma, Zhihang Peng, Zhen Jin, Sen-Zhong Huang. Tendency prediction of COVID-19 worldwide[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(6): 467-472. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.06.004
Citation: Fengying Wei, Jinjie Wang, Xianming Xu, Jianzhao Gao, Boling Wang, Chiyu Ma, Zhihang Peng, Zhen Jin, Sen-Zhong Huang. Tendency prediction of COVID-19 worldwide[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(6): 467-472. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.06.004

全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势预测

Tendency prediction of COVID-19 worldwide

  • 摘要:
    目的对全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的走向进行科学预测。
    方法基于SEIR(易感者–潜伏者–传染者–恢复者)模型的建模思路,建立积分型普适SEIR模型刻画新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情在易感人群中的传播机制,结合新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的平均潜伏期、平均传染期、非典型患者占比等参数,利用构建的EpiSIX程序,模拟全球主要疫情国家新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的总体态势。
    结果在理想状态下,全球范围内的疫情将不迟于9月底结束,全球确诊总规模在700万例左右(现确诊总数为540万例);其中,美国将达到250万例(现确诊总数是167万例)。
    结论本研究提出如下警告:现在预测的是首波疫情的结果,要警惕出现二次暴发的可能。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveWe give projections of the COVID-19 epidemic course worldwide.
    MethodsBased on a generic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed) model which incorporates the main epidemiological parameters and control efficacy into it, we construct thereby the webapp EpiSIX and use it to forecast the possible tendency of the epidemic course of COVID-19.
    ResultsIdeally, the epidemic course worldwide would be stopped by the end of September 2020, with outcomes of 7.0 million diagnosed cases worldwide and 2.5 million diagnosed cases in the USA (currently 5.4 million worldwide and 1.67 million in USA).
    ConclusionWe make a Warning: Predicted only for the first wave. Be careful with the emerging of second wave.

     

/

返回文章
返回