2014－2019年成都地区诺如病毒聚集性疫情时空分布特征分析

陈恒; 程悦; 吴佳隆; 孟建彤; 戴映雪; 杜长慧; 陈振华; 黄韦唯; 速丽媛; 梁娴

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202105080249

2014－2019年成都地区诺如病毒聚集性疫情时空分布特征分析

Spatiotemporal distribution of norovirus infection outbreaks in Chengdu

摘要

摘要:
目的应用地理信息系统（GIS）对成都地区诺如病毒聚集性疫情进行时空分布特征分析，为诺如病毒疫情防控提供依据。
方法以成都地区2014 — 2019年聚集性疫情病例资料建立数据库，利用GIS软件与成都地区矢量地图关联，应用集中度法与圆形分布法分析疫情时间聚集性，Moran’s Ⅰ 法分析空间自相关。
结果成都地区诺如病毒聚集性疫情M值为0.3927872，具有一定时间聚集性，冬季高于其他季节，夏季最低；不同型别的平均发病日与发病高峰期不同，时间集中于11月至次年3月。空间分布呈现中心城区高于郊区特点，不同季节“热点”与“冷点”区域不同。
结论成都地区诺如病毒聚集性疫情时空聚集性显著，应关注重点区域开展防控。

Abstract:
Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of norovirus infection outbreaks in Chengdu with the geographic information system (GIS) and provide evidence for the prevention and control of norovirus infection.
Methods A database of the outbreaks of norovirus infection in Chengdu from 2014 to 2019 was established. The concentration ratio and circular distribution method were used to analyze the temporal clustering of the epidemic, and the Moran’s Ⅰ method was used to analyze spatial autocorrelation.
Results The M value of norovirus outbreaks in Chengdu was 0.3927872, which showed the temporal clustering of norovirus infection with higher incidence in winter and the incidence peak during November - March. The incidence was higher in central urban area than in suburban area, with different “hot spot” or “cold spot” in different seasons.
Conclusion There was obvious spatiotemporal clustering of norovirus infection outbreaks in Chengdu, suggesting that the prevention and control of norovirus infection should be strengthened in key area and period.

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