耿梦杰, 任翔, 彭质斌, 常昭瑞, 陈秋兰, 李昱, 牟笛, 刘凤凤, 李超, 李静欣, 谢怡然, 王大燕, 李建东, 魏建春, 姜海, 王赢, 王丽萍, 张彦平. 2021年我国夏季重点传染病疫情形势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(8): 811-817. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202106170344
引用本文: 耿梦杰, 任翔, 彭质斌, 常昭瑞, 陈秋兰, 李昱, 牟笛, 刘凤凤, 李超, 李静欣, 谢怡然, 王大燕, 李建东, 魏建春, 姜海, 王赢, 王丽萍, 张彦平. 2021年我国夏季重点传染病疫情形势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(8): 811-817. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202106170344
Geng Mengjie, Ren Xiang, Peng Zhibin, Chang Zhaorui, Chen Qiulan, Li Yu, Mu Di, Liu Fengfeng, Li Chao, Li Jingxin, Xie Yiran, Wang Dayan, Li Jiandong, Wei Jianchun, Jiang Hai, Wang Ying, Wang Liping, Zhang Yanping. Incidence of key infectious diseases in summer of 2021, China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(8): 811-817. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202106170344
Citation: Geng Mengjie, Ren Xiang, Peng Zhibin, Chang Zhaorui, Chen Qiulan, Li Yu, Mu Di, Liu Fengfeng, Li Chao, Li Jingxin, Xie Yiran, Wang Dayan, Li Jiandong, Wei Jianchun, Jiang Hai, Wang Ying, Wang Liping, Zhang Yanping. Incidence of key infectious diseases in summer of 2021, China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(8): 811-817. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202106170344

2021年我国夏季重点传染病疫情形势分析

Incidence of key infectious diseases in summer of 2021, China

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2021年全国夏季重点传染病疫情形势,为进一步做好夏季重点传染病监测与防控提供参考和指导。
      方法  根据我国传染病疫情报告信息管理系统、流感专病监测信息管理系统的监测数据,在对2021年1—5月全国法定传染病监测数据以及2017 — 2020年同期疫情形势进行分析基础上,采用专家会商法,研判我国2021年夏季重点传染病的疫情形势。
      结果  2021年截至5月23日,全国共报告法定传染病247万例,较2020年同期(260万例)下降5%;排除新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)后,报告发病数较2019年同期(426万例)下降42%,较2017 — 2019年同期平均水平(324万例)下降24%;死亡7162例,较2020年同期(11671例)下降39%,较2017 — 2019年同期平均(7639例)下降6%。布鲁氏菌病报告病例数(2.7万)较2020年同期上升73%,较2017 — 2019年同期平均上升70%,内蒙古布鲁氏菌病发病率自2017年开始迅猛上升,宁夏回族自治区、甘肃省自2018年呈上升趋势。 手足口病报告病例数(43万例)和重症数(433例)较2020年同期分别上升985%和1070%。 全国共报告登革热病例15例,较2020年同期(110例)下降86%。 报告炭疽病例59例,较2020年同期(47例)略有增加。 流行性感冒报告病例数(10.7万例)较2020年同期下降90%。 2021年我国内地共报告11例人感染禽流感病例,较往年略有增加,均为散发。
      结论  2021年1 — 5月全国法定传染病疫情总体低于往年同期平均水平,夏季仍将继续维持总体平稳态势。 预计夏季布鲁氏菌病、手足口病、登革热、炭疽的发病水平将呈现上升趋势,应加强对这些夏季重点传染病的监测预警。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To assess the incidences of key infectious diseases in the summer of 2021 in China and provide reference and guidance for further surveillance, prevention and control of these infectious diseases in the summer of 2021.
      Methods  The incidence data of notifiable infectious diseases from January to May 2021 in China collected from National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System and the influenza surveillance system were analyzed and compared with the incidence data of the diseases during the same periods from 2017 to 2020 by experts to evaluate and predict the incidence trends of the key infectious diseases in summer 2021.
      Results  As of May 23, 2021, a total of 2.47 million cases of notifiable diseases had been reported in China, a decrease of 5% compared with the same period in 2020 (2.60 million cases). After the exclusion of COVID-19 cases, the case number was 42% lower than that during the same period in 2019 (4.26 million cases) and 24% lower than the average of the same periods from 2017 to 2019 (3.24 million cases). A total of 7162 deaths had been reported in China, which was 39% lower than that during the same period in 2020 (11671 deaths) and 6% lower than the average of the same periods from 2017 to 2019 (7639 deaths). From January to May 2021, a total of 27 000 brucellosis cases were reported, which was 73% higher than that during the same period in 2020 and 70% higher than the average during the same periods from 2017 to 2019. The incidence of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia has increased rapidly since 2017, and the incidences of brucellosis in Ningxia and Gansu have been in increase since 2018. During this period, a total of 430 000 cases of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD), including 433 severe cases, were reported, an increase of 985% and 1070% compared with the same period in 2020, a total of 15 dengue fever cases were reported, which was 86% lower than that during the same period in 2020 (110 cases), a total of 59 anthrax cases were reported, which was higher than that during the same period in 2020 (47 cases), a total of 107 000 influenza cases were reported, which was 90% lower than that during the same period in 2020 and a total of 11 cases of human infection with avian influenza virus were reported, which was slightly higher compared with the same period in previous years, all the human infections with avian influenza virus occurred sporadically.
      Conclusion  The total case number of notifiable infectious diseases between January and May in 2021 was lower than those during the same periods in previous years, the incidence would continue to remain stable in this summer. It is predicted that the case numbers and the incidence intensities of brucellosis, HFMD, dengue and anthrax would continue to increase in this summer. The surveillance and early warning of these diseases should be strengthened.

     

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