刘天, 阮德欣, 姚梦雷, 侯清波, 黄继贵, 吴杨, 刘漫, 罗曼. 2017-2020年湖北省荆州市肾综合征出血热流行特征及时空聚集性分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(3): 304-309. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202111100582
引用本文: 刘天, 阮德欣, 姚梦雷, 侯清波, 黄继贵, 吴杨, 刘漫, 罗曼. 2017-2020年湖北省荆州市肾综合征出血热流行特征及时空聚集性分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(3): 304-309. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202111100582
Liu Tian, Ruan Dexin, Yao Menglei, Hou Qingbo, Huang Jigui, Wu Yang, Liu Man, Luo Man. Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jingzhou, Hubei, 2017−2020[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(3): 304-309. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202111100582
Citation: Liu Tian, Ruan Dexin, Yao Menglei, Hou Qingbo, Huang Jigui, Wu Yang, Liu Man, Luo Man. Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jingzhou, Hubei, 2017−2020[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(3): 304-309. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202111100582

2017-2020年湖北省荆州市肾综合征出血热流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jingzhou, Hubei, 2017−2020

  • 摘要:
      目的  分析2017—2020年湖北省荆州市肾综合征出血热(HFRS)流行特征及时空聚集性,为该市HFRS的防控提供参考。
      方法  采用描述性流行病学方法描述荆州市HFRS病例的三间分布和死亡病例的特征。 采用核密度估计(KDE)分析HFRS病例的空间聚集性;采用时空扫描统计分析HFRS病例的时空聚集性。
      结果  2017—2020年荆州市累计报告HFRS 875例,发病率为3.89/10万,死亡15例,病死率为1.71%。 2020年发病率最高为5.67/10万,2017年发病率最低为2.18/10万。 荆州市8个县(市、区)均有病例报告,发病率居前3位的地区分别为江陵县(9.98/10万)、公安县(5.96/10万)、监利县(5.60/10万)。 HFRS存在2个流行高峰,为4—7月和11月至次年1月。 男性发病率高于女性(RR=2.71,95%CI:2.33~3.14)。 发病率最高的年龄组为60~64岁(10.90/10万)、65~69岁(8.96/10万)、55~59岁(8.07/10万)。 60岁以上病例数占病例总数的36.06%。 职业以农民(666例,占76.11%)为主。 KDE显示较高及以上强度聚集区集中在江陵县、监利县和公安县的部分区域。 时空扫描得到1个时空聚集区,聚集时间为2020年4月1日至2020年7月19日,以江陵县普济镇为中心,半径为41.89 km,覆盖沙市区、公安县、石首市、监利市共42个乡镇。
      结论  荆州市HFRS疫情处较高水平。 高发地区仍以江陵县、监利县和公安县为主。 高发年龄有向高年龄组转移趋势,HFRS疫苗未能覆盖该人群。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Jingzhou from 2017 to 2020, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of HFRS.
      Methods  Descriptive epidemiological method was used to describe the three distributions of HFRS cases in Jingzhou. Kernel density estimation (KDE) was used to analyze the spatial clustering of HFRS. Spatiotemporal scanning statistics were used to analyze the temporal and spatial clustering of HFRS.
      Results  A total of 875 cases of HFRS, including 15 deaths, were reported in Jingzhou from 2017 to 2020, with an incidence rate of 3.89 per 100 000 and the case fatality rate of 1.71%. The incidence rate was highest in 2020 (5.67/100 000), and lowest in 2017 (2.18/100 000). HFRS cases were reported in 8 counties (districts) of Jingzhou. The areas with the high incidence rates were Jiangling (9.98/100 000), Gong'an (5.96/100 000), and Jianli (5.60/100 000). The annual incidence of HFRS had two peaks, one was during April-July and another one was during November-January. The incidence rate in men was higher than that in women (RR=2.71, 95% CI: 2.33–3.14). The incidence rate was highest in age group 60−64 years (10.90/100 000), followed by age groups 65−69 years (8.96/100 000) and 55−59 years (8.07/100 000). The cases aged over 60 years accounted for 36.06% of the total cases. The cases were mainly farmers (666 cases, 76.11%). KDE showed that high and above intensity clusters were distributed in parts of Jiangling, Jianli, and Gong'an. There was a spatiotemporal clustering area, covering 42 townships in Shashi, Gong'an, Shishou and Jianli, from April 1 to July 19, 2020. The center of clustering area was Puji township of Jiangling, and the radius of the area was 41.89 km
      Conclusion  The incidence of HFRS in Jingzhou was at a relatively high level. The high-risk areas were dominated by Jiangling, Jianli and Gong'an. The high incidence had shifted from young age group to old age group, and the HFRS vaccination failed to cover the population in this area.

     

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