杨庆, 漆琪, 刘家洁, 李银乔, 刘力进, 刘亿, 张恺, 刘宇. 2010-2021年四川省乙型肝炎流行特征分析及发病预测[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(2): 202-206. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202207160324
引用本文: 杨庆, 漆琪, 刘家洁, 李银乔, 刘力进, 刘亿, 张恺, 刘宇. 2010-2021年四川省乙型肝炎流行特征分析及发病预测[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(2): 202-206. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202207160324
Yang Qing, Qi Qi, Liu Jiajie, Li Yinqiao, Liu Lijin, Liu Yi, Zhang Kai, Liu Yu. Epidemiological characteristics and incidence prediction of hepatitis B in Sichuan, 2010−2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(2): 202-206. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202207160324
Citation: Yang Qing, Qi Qi, Liu Jiajie, Li Yinqiao, Liu Lijin, Liu Yi, Zhang Kai, Liu Yu. Epidemiological characteristics and incidence prediction of hepatitis B in Sichuan, 2010−2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(2): 202-206. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202207160324

2010-2021年四川省乙型肝炎流行特征分析及发病预测

Epidemiological characteristics and incidence prediction of hepatitis B in Sichuan, 2010−2021

  • 摘要:
      目的   分析四川省2010—2021年乙型肝炎(乙肝)流行特征,建立自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型并预测乙肝发病趋势,为四川省乙肝防控提供理论依据。
      方法   采用描述性流行病学方法分析四川省2010—2021年乙肝流行特征;运用R 4.0.2软件建立ARIMA模型并预测四川省乙肝月发病情况。
      结果   2010—2021年四川省累计报告乙肝536 017例,年均报告发病率为54.44/10万,整体呈先下降后上升的趋势;急性乙肝发病率呈逐年下降的趋势;无明显季节性发病高峰;凉山彝族自治州、巴中市和甘孜藏族自治州为高发地区;发病人群主要以农民为主(占62.85%),发病年龄段主要集中在35~54岁(占41.83%),男女性别比为1.95∶1。 ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12为最优模型,2022年1—6月的实际发病数均落入模型预测值95% CI内,模型的平均绝对百分比误差为4.86%。
      结论   四川省乙肝疫苗母婴阻断工作已有效遏制急性乙肝的发病,但总乙肝发病率居高不下;男性、35~54岁年龄组以及农民是乙肝防控重点人群;建立的ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12模型能较好地预测四川省乙肝发病情况。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Sichuan province from 2010 to 2021, establish an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis B, and provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis B in Sichuan.
      Methods   Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Sichuan from 2010 to 2021. Software R 4.0.2 was used to establish an ARIMA model to predict the monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Sichuan.
      Results   A total of 536 017 cases of hepatitis B were reported in Sichuan from 2010 to 2021, the average annual incidence rate was 54.44/100 000. The overall incidence rate showed a decreasing trend first and then an increasing trend, and the incidence had no obvious seasonality. The incidence of acute hepatitis B decreased year by year. Liangshan, Bazhong and Ganzi were the areas with high incidences. The majority of the patients were farmers (62.85%), and the cases were mainly aged 35−54 years old (41.83%). The male to female ratio of the cases was 1.95∶1. ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 was the optimal model. The actual number of cases from January to June 2022 were all within the 95% CI of the predicted value of the model. The mean absolute percentage error of the model was 4.86%.
      Conclusion   Although the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B in Sichuan has effectively contained the incidence of acute hepatitis B, the overall incidence rate of hepatitis B was still high. Male, those aged 35−54 years and farmer are the key populations in hepatitis B prevention and control. The established ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 model can well predict the incidence of hepatitis B in Sichuan.

     

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