魏依侬, 涂文校, 王哲, 孟玲, 向妮娟, 施国庆. 2021年2月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(2): 107-109. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202102240087
引用本文: 魏依侬, 涂文校, 王哲, 孟玲, 向妮娟, 施国庆. 2021年2月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(2): 107-109. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202102240087
Wei Yinong, Tu Wenxiao, Wang Zhe, Meng Ling, Xiang Nijuan, Shi Guoqing. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, February 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(2): 107-109. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202102240087
Citation: Wei Yinong, Tu Wenxiao, Wang Zhe, Meng Ling, Xiang Nijuan, Shi Guoqing. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, February 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(2): 107-109. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202102240087

2021年2月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, February 2021

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2021年2月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
      方法  根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
      结果  预计2021年2月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较2021年1月有所下降,可能比2020年2月明显下降。 境外新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情已呈现下降趋势,但仍将呈现高水平流行态势,我国继续面临本土传播疫情在境内扩散以及境外输入疫情导致本土传播的双重风险。 在各地保持良好的监测和反应能力,按照国家前期部署做好春节前后疫情防控工作,我国疫情发生大规模流行的可能性极低。 非职业性一氧化碳中毒2月仍处于该事件的高发季节,但报告事件数和中毒人数较1月可能会出现回落。
      结论  需要对新型冠状病毒肺炎予以特别关注,一般关注非职业性一氧化碳中毒。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in February, 2021.
      Methods  An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the incidence data of public health emergencies reported both at home and abroad and the surveillance data of priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
      Results  It is predicted the incidence of public health emergencies would decrease in February compared with that in January, 2021 and would be dramatically lower compared with the same period in 2020. The incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outside China has shown decline trend, but the disease will continue to spread at a very high level. China still face risks of both ongoing local transmission and the imported cases from other countries. Given the sensitive surveillance and rapid response capacity across the country and strengthened prevention and control measures taken before and after the Spring Festival according the national strategy, the possibility of new COVID-19 epidemic in China is very low. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would be still high in February, however, the reported event and case numbers of carbon monoxide poisoning might decrease compared with January.
      Conclusion  It is necessary to pay special attention to COVID-19 and pay general attention to non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.

     

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