涂文校, 牟笛, 刘凤凤, 李昱, 任婧寰, 袁媛, 黎丹, 孟玲, 向妮娟, 张彦平. 2019年6月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(6): 484-488. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.06.004
引用本文: 涂文校, 牟笛, 刘凤凤, 李昱, 任婧寰, 袁媛, 黎丹, 孟玲, 向妮娟, 张彦平. 2019年6月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(6): 484-488. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.06.004
Wenxiao Tu, Di Mu, Fengfeng Liu, Yu Li, Jinghuan Ren, Yuan Yuan, Dan Li, Ling Meng, Nijuan Xiang, Yanping Zhang. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, June 2019[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(6): 484-488. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.06.004
Citation: Wenxiao Tu, Di Mu, Fengfeng Liu, Yu Li, Jinghuan Ren, Yuan Yuan, Dan Li, Ling Meng, Nijuan Xiang, Yanping Zhang. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, June 2019[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(6): 484-488. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.06.004

2019年6月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, June 2019

  • 摘要:
    目的评估2019年6月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果预计6月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较5月有所下降,但仍处于高发阶段,报告事件可能以发生在学校的水痘、手足口病、流行性腮腺炎、风疹等疫情暴发。 我国媒介伊蚊分布的地区将逐渐进入登革热高发期,本地传染的登革热病例将继续上升,可能出现小规模本地暴发。 全国大部分省份手足口病病例将继续增多,流行强度增强。 人感染猪链球菌散发病例数可能会继续增加,从事猪肉屠宰及加工等人员为高危人群。 发生在学校等集体单位和饮食服务单位、农村群体聚餐(如喜宴、丧宴)的细菌性食物中毒会季节性增多,有毒动植物及毒蘑菇引起的中毒死亡将成为食物中毒的主要死因。 刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情仍将持续发生,但输入我国的风险低。
    结论2019年6月我国大陆地区无特别关注的突发公共卫生事件风险;需要重点关注登革热和手足口病疫情的风险,一般关注人感染猪链球菌病、食物中毒(含有毒蘑菇中毒)以及刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情的输入风险。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo assess the risks of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in June 2019.
    MethodsAn internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this meeting through video conference.
    ResultsIt is expected that the number of public health emergencies reported in June will be lower than May, but still at a relative high level, which might be mainly the outbreaks of communicable diseases in schools, such as chickenpox, hand, foot and mouth disease (HMFD), mumps and rubella. The area where Aedes mosquitoes exist will gradually enter the high-risk season of dengue fever. The number of locally transmitted cases of dengue fever will continue to rise and small-scale local outbreaks might occur. HFMD cases will continue to increase and epidemic intensity will increase in most provinces of the country. The sporadic cases of human infection with Streptococcus suis infection may continue to increase, and people who engage in pork slaughtering and processing are at high risk of infection. Bacterial food poisoning in schools, catering service units and rural wedding banquets or funeral banquets will increase. Poisoning deaths caused by poisonous animal, plants and mushrooms will become the main death causes of food poisoning. The epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will continue, but the risk of its importation into China is low.
    ConclusionJune 2019, there is no special concern risk of public health emergency in the mainland China., major concern should be paid to the risk of dengue fever and HFMD epidemics, and general concern should be paid to the human infection with Streptococcus suis, food poisoning (including toxic mushroom poisoning) and EVD in the DRC.

     

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