2014－2019年广东省孕产妇和儿童死亡率时空分布特征及预测研究

林小丹; 徐碧霞; 姚卫光

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202106080325

2014－2019年广东省孕产妇和儿童死亡率时空分布特征及预测研究

Spatiotemporal distribution during 2014–2019 and prediction of maternal and child mortality in Guangdong

摘要

摘要:
目的探究广东省孕产妇和儿童死亡率的时空分布特征，并预测“十四五”期间各指标的发展趋势。
方法收集2014—2019年广东省孕产妇死亡率和儿童死亡率相关指标，采用ArcGIS软件进行空间分析，GM（1，1）模型进行预测分析。
结果 2014—2019年广东省妇幼卫生健康指标中5岁以下儿童死亡率（U5MR）、婴儿死亡率（IMR）和新生儿死亡率（NMR）指标整体呈下降态势，但孕产妇死亡率（MMR）波动较大。 2019年数据显示地区之间各指标存在较明显的差异。预测到2025年广东省MMR、U5MR、IMR、NMR预测值分别为9.92/10万、1.54‰、1.32‰、0.85‰。
结论广东省妇幼卫生保健工作取得了一定的成效。未来应继续降低孕产妇死亡率，推进医疗卫生资源优化整合，提供全生命周期妇幼健康服务。

Abstract:
Objective To understand the spatiotemporal distribution of maternal and child mortality during 2014–2019 and predict the future trends during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Guangdong province.
Methods The indicators related to maternal mortality and child mortality in Guangdong from 2014–2019 were collected, and software ArcGIS was used for spatial analysis and GM (1, 1) model was used for prediction analysis.
Results The overall mortality rate under 5 years old (U5MR), infant mortality rate (IMR), and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) in Guangdong from 2014 to 2019 showed decreasing trends, but the maternal mortality rate (MMR) fluctuated. The 2019 data showed the differences in the indicators were significant among areas. The predicted MMR, U5MR, IMR and NMR in Guangdong by 2025 would be 9.92/100 000, 1.54‰, 1.32‰ and 0.85‰, respectively.
Conclusion Maternal and child health care in Guangdong has made some achievement. In the future, it is necessary to further reduce maternal mortality, promote the optimization and integration of medical and health resources and provide life-cycle maternal and child health services.

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