赵烨, 孙晋渊, 杨玲, 蔡雨阳. 我国西北及东北边境地区新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(9): 798-802. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.09.007
引用本文: 赵烨, 孙晋渊, 杨玲, 蔡雨阳. 我国西北及东北边境地区新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(9): 798-802. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.09.007
Ye Zhao, Jinyuan Sun, Ling Yang, Yuyang Cai. Epidemic characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in northwest and northeast border areas of China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(9): 798-802. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.09.007
Citation: Ye Zhao, Jinyuan Sun, Ling Yang, Yuyang Cai. Epidemic characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in northwest and northeast border areas of China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(9): 798-802. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.09.007

我国西北及东北边境地区新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征分析

Epidemic characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in northwest and northeast border areas of China

  • 摘要:
    目的应用公开数据,对我国西北及东北边境地区的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情(截至2020年4月20日)进行分析,为COVID-19疫情防控提供科学依据。
    方法采用国家卫生健康委员会和各地政府发布的西北以新疆维吾尔自治区(新疆)为例及东北(以黑龙江省为例)地区各城市2020年1月23日至4月20日的COVID-19疫情数据,分析各地COVID-19感染率,并采用Joinpoint软件,按日均变化百分比(day percentage change, DPC)进行趋势分析。
    结果截至2020年4月20日,新疆及黑龙江省共累计报告确诊病例989例,其中新疆76例,黑龙江省913例(包含境外输入病例383例)。 新疆疫情仅1个高峰,先缓慢上升(DPC=7.0%, P<0.05),后迅速下降(DPC=−12.0%,−64.2%,均P<0.05)。黑龙江省疫情发展较为复杂,有2个高峰。 第1个高峰期,疫情迅速上升(DPC=20.1%,P<0.05),后缓慢下降(DPC=−11.4%,−56.6%,均P<0.05);第2个高峰期,疫情又迅速上升(DPC=129.4%,P<0.05),且趋势更快,后再次缓慢下降(DPC=−10.1%,P<0.05)。
    结论两地COVID-19疫情均由输入病例引发,输入病例多,防控压力大。防控措施如能有效规范落实,则可在较短的时间内控制疫情。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemic characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the northwest and northeast border areas of China (as of April 20, 2020) and provide scientific basis for prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic situation.
    MethodsThe population density data of two areas were collected. The epidemic data of COVID-19, which were released by the National Health Commission and local governments, from January 23, 2020 to April 20, 2020 in cities of Xinjiang in northwestern China and in cities of Heilongjiang in northeastern China were used to analyze the infection rate in these areas. The trend analysis was carried out by using Joinpoint software according to the day percentage change (DPC).
    ResultsAs of April 20, 2020, a total of 989 confirmed cases had been reported in Xinjiang and Heilongjiang, i.e. 76 cases in Xinjiang and 913 cases in Heilongjiang, including 383 imported cases. The overall incidence of COVID-19 in Xinjiang showed normal trend, rising slowly at first (DPC=7.0%, P<0.05) and then declining rapidly (DPC=−12.0%, −64.2%, all P<0.05). The epidemic in Heilongjiang was relatively complex with two peaks. In the first peak, the incidence increased rapidly (DPC=20.1%, P<0.05), and then decreased slowly (DPC=−11.4%, −56.6%, all P<0.05). In the second peak, the incidence increased more rapidly (DPC=129.4%, P<0.05), then decreased slowly again (DPC=−10.1%, P<0.05).
    ConclusionThe epidemics of COVID-19 in the two areas were caused by imported cases. More imported cases may pose serious challenge to the prevention and control of COVID-19. However, if the prevention and control measures can be effectively implemented, the epidemic can be controlled in a short period of time, otherwise it is prone to spread.

     

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