雷锦志, 徐闯, 刘胜强, 裴永珍. 新型冠状病毒肺炎常态化防控措施下疫情发生及演变的模拟研究[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(12): 1295-1301. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202101230038
引用本文: 雷锦志, 徐闯, 刘胜强, 裴永珍. 新型冠状病毒肺炎常态化防控措施下疫情发生及演变的模拟研究[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(12): 1295-1301. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202101230038
Lei Jinzhi, Xu Chuang, Liu Shengqiang, Pei Yongzhen. Simulation study of incidence and spread of COVID-19 epidemic under routine prevention and control[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(12): 1295-1301. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202101230038
Citation: Lei Jinzhi, Xu Chuang, Liu Shengqiang, Pei Yongzhen. Simulation study of incidence and spread of COVID-19 epidemic under routine prevention and control[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(12): 1295-1301. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202101230038

新型冠状病毒肺炎常态化防控措施下疫情发生及演变的模拟研究

Simulation study of incidence and spread of COVID-19 epidemic under routine prevention and control

  • 摘要:
      目的  通过构建基于接触网络和个体状态变化的计算模型,探究常态化条件下应对新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)突发病例的防控措施,以及对不同突发情况模拟相应防控措施下的疫情演进过程,为疾控部门制定方案和进行疫情预测提供理论和方法支撑。
      方法  通过基于个体模型评估COVID-19病例直接密切接触者隔离和次级密切接触者隔离对防控的影响;分别模拟零星突发、聚集性突发和连续输入病例在常态化防控措施下的疫情演变动力学过程。
      结果  模拟结果表明,对COVID-19病例次级密切接触者追踪隔离的疫情控制措施效果显著,与仅采取对直接密切接触者的隔离措施相比,大大降低了疫情的规模。 根据模型计算提出的常态化防控策略,可以有效控制零星突发、聚集性突发和连续输入病例所引起的疫情发展。
      结论  基于模型对不同情况下的疫情演变过程进行计算,评估了常态化条件下疫情防控措施的有效性,表明次级密切接触者隔离措施对于疫情的有效防控是必要的,建议疫情发生后尽早执行密切接触者隔离和限制接触措施。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To explore the routine prevention and control measures for COVID-19 and to evaluate the epidemic spread in different simulated emergency status through an established computational model based on contact network and individual state changes, and provide theory evidence and method for the prevention and control of COVID-19 and epidemic prediction.
      Methods  The impacts of close contact isolation and secondary close contact isolation on the prevention and control of COVID-19 were evaluated based on an individual based model. The dynamics of the epidemic in the context of sporadic cases, cluster, or continuous case importation under routine prevention and control were studied through model simulation, respectively.
      Results  Model simulations showed that the effect of the secondary close contact isolation was obvious, which could greatly reduce the epidemic level compared with close contact isolation alone. According to model simulation, the proposed prevention and control strategy can effectively control the epidemic caused by sporadic cases, clusters, and continuous imported cases.
      Conclusion  Based on the model simulation of epidemic spread under different status, the effect of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control by routine measures was evaluated, indicating that secondary close contact quarantine is necessary to control the disease spreading, and it is suggested to conduct early isolation of close contacts as early as possible after the epidemic occur in the routine prevention and control of COVID-19.

     

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