刘天, 李勤, 漆莉, 李柏松, 夏宇, 杨琳, 赵寒. 基于移动流行区间法建立重庆市手足口病预警模型[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(11): 1020-1024. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.11.013
引用本文: 刘天, 李勤, 漆莉, 李柏松, 夏宇, 杨琳, 赵寒. 基于移动流行区间法建立重庆市手足口病预警模型[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(11): 1020-1024. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.11.013
Liu Tian, Li Qin, Qi Li, Li Bosong, Xia Yu, Yang Lin, Zhao Han. Establishment of early warning model of hand, foot and mouth disease based on moving epidemic method in Chongqing[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(11): 1020-1024. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.11.013
Citation: Liu Tian, Li Qin, Qi Li, Li Bosong, Xia Yu, Yang Lin, Zhao Han. Establishment of early warning model of hand, foot and mouth disease based on moving epidemic method in Chongqing[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(11): 1020-1024. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.11.013

基于移动流行区间法建立重庆市手足口病预警模型

Establishment of early warning model of hand, foot and mouth disease based on moving epidemic method in Chongqing

  • 摘要:
      目的  探讨基于移动流行区间法(MEM)建立重庆市手足口病预警模型的可行性。
      方法  收集2013年第1周至2019年第26周重庆市手足口病发病率数据。 通过绘制手足口病周平均发病率流行曲线将手足口病双高峰拆分为春夏季流行季节和秋冬季流行季节。 分别建立春夏季和秋冬季MEM模型,并筛选模型参数δ,采用灵敏度、特异度和约登指数评价模型拟合效果。 利用建立模型预警重庆市各县(市、区)2018/2019年度手足口病流行情况。
      结果  2019年第13 — 26周处于春夏季流行季节流行期;2018年第36周至2019年第2周处于秋冬季流行期。 春夏季MEM模型最优参数δ=2.6,灵敏度、特异度和约登指数依次为0.883、0.908和0.791;秋冬季MEM模型最优参数δ=2.4,灵敏度、特异度和约登指数依次为0.805、0.862和0.667。 重庆市大部分县(市、区)手足口病流行水平一致。
      结论  将手足口病流行双峰拆分为2个单峰分别建立的MEM模型能准确识别手足口病流行期,可以用于重庆市手足口病的预警。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To evaluate the feasibility of establishing an early warning model of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) based moving epidemic method (MEM) in Chongqing.
      Methods  The incidence data of HFMD in Chongqing from the 1st week of 2013 to the 26th week of 2019 were collected from Chinese Infectious Disease Information System. Two peaks of HFMD were found by plotting the epidemic curve of the average incidence of HFMD. The spring-summer MEM model and the autumn-winter MEM model were then established respectively, and the parameters δ of models were screened. The fitting effect of two models were evaluated by using sensitivity, specificity and Yoden index. The models were used to predict the incidence of HFMD in Chongqing in 2018/2019.
      Results  The results showed that the epidemic period in spring and summer lasted from the 13th week 36th weeks in 2019, and the epidemic period in autumn and winter lasted from the 36th week in 2018 to the 2nd week in 2019. The optimal parameter of MEM model during spring-summer was 2.6, the sensitivity, specificity and Yoden index were 0.883, 0.908 and 0.791, respectively. The optimal parameter of MEM model during autumn-winter was 2.4, and the sensitivity, specificity and Yoden index were 0.805, 0.862 and 0.667. Most counties and districts of Chongqing had similar incidence level of HFMD.
      Conclusion  Establishing MEM models by dividing two incidence peaks of HFMD into single one respectively can accurately identify the epidemic period of HFMD, and the models can be used for the early warning of HFMD in Chongqing.

     

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