运用集中度和圆形分布分析传染病的季节性分布

Analysis on the Seasonal Distribution of Infectious Diseases by using Centralization and Circular Distribution

摘要: 本文运用向量合成表示法—集中度对北京市东城区３８年间１０种法定传染病的季节性分布进行分析。按全面实施计划免疫前（１９５８～１９７８）和全面实施计划免疫后（１９７９～１９９６）两个阶段分别计算集中度Ｍ值和圆形分布Ｒ值。结果表明：除麻疹的发病高峰在第二阶段向后推移一月余和季节性更趋明显外，其余传染病的季节性分布均未改变，即乙脑发病仍有严格的季节性；流脑和痢疾有较强的季节性；百日咳和伤寒有一定的季节性；肝炎、脊灰和猩红热的季节性较差。这为我们调整传染病防治对策提供了科学依据。

Abstract: The Seasonal distribution of 10 notifiable communicable diseases during the past 38 years in Dongcheng district Beijing was analysised by using vector compound mode_centraligation and circular distribution. The Centraligation Value M and Circular Distribution value R were calculated respectively accounding to the following different stages:before implementation of Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI)(1958～1978) and after implementation of EPI(1979～1996).The resvlt showed that there was almost no change in the seasonal distribution of all the communicable cable diseases except the peak of measles was one month delayed after implementation of EPI.