Abstract: Stroke mortality in cities and rural areas of Shandong Province from 1970 to 1997 were analyzed dynamically. A theoretical model of greysystem was established based on the time-series changes in stroke mortality to predict its trend during the years of 1998～2007 in Shandong. The results showed that the crude and ajusted mortality rate in stroke increased by 94.32% and 77.28% respectively. Analyzing the mortality type, ratio of infarction stroke was increased annually but hemorrhagic stroke was on the contrary. By using the grey - system model,the predicted adjusted mortality rate of stroke will be increased to 61.50/100000 in cities and to 73.63/100000 in rural areas respectively (1.70% and 14.52% more than 1997) in 2007.