应用余弦模型对流脑预测的研究

Study on the Prediction of Epidemic Cerebrospinal Meningitis by Using Cosine Model

摘要: 本文提出的应用余弦模型对流脑月、年发病数进行的预测是定量预测方法，结果较为准确，有一定应用价值。为使预测值＞０，在ｒ≤０.５时，可直接计算，ｒ＞０.５时，需把原始数据转换成对数后再进行计算。同时，对在应用中应注意的其它一些问题进行了讨论。

Abstract: This paper discribed that using consine model predicted epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis case number per month or year was a rational prediction method, the result accuracy was better and had some practical value. In order to make the prediction value>0, if r value≤0.5 could be calculated directly, if r value>.05 the original data was neccesary to transform to Logarithm when the calculation was taken.