田春波, 柳旺艳, 付仁仙. 2007 - 2009年浙江省丽水市手足口病流行病学特征分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2010, 25(3): 187-189. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2010.03.008
引用本文: 田春波, 柳旺艳, 付仁仙. 2007 - 2009年浙江省丽水市手足口病流行病学特征分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2010, 25(3): 187-189. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2010.03.008
TIAN Chun-bo, LIU Wang-yan, FU Ren-xian. Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Lishui city, Zhejiang province 2007 - 2009[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2010, 25(3): 187-189. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2010.03.008
Citation: TIAN Chun-bo, LIU Wang-yan, FU Ren-xian. Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Lishui city, Zhejiang province 2007 - 2009[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2010, 25(3): 187-189. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2010.03.008

2007 - 2009年浙江省丽水市手足口病流行病学特征分析

Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Lishui city, Zhejiang province 2007 - 2009

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨浙江省丽水市手足口病发病流行病学特征,及时掌握手足口病疫情趋势。 方法 利用描述性流行病学方法进行流行病学分析、构建BP神经网络模型进行疫情预测。 结果 丽水市2007 - 2009 年累计报告手足口病6139 例,年均发病率为81.10/10 万。2007 - 2009年不同年份间发病率差异有统计学意义(P0.01)。全市各县(市、区)均有发病。以丽水市经济较发达县(市、区)发病率最高,莲都区发病率最高,为596.80/10万。发病主要集中在5-10 月,占80.38 %。发病主要集中在5 岁以下儿童,以散居及幼托儿童为主。2010年1-6月预测发病例数分别为17、17、20、100、181和679例。 结论 手足口病的发生存在明显时间、地区、性别、年龄差异,且疫情处于上升状态,2010年疫情趋势预测与2007 - 2009年年均发病水平基本一致。

     

    Abstract: Objective To determine the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Lishui and to assess the prevalence trend of this disease in a timely manner. Methods A descriptive epidemiologic approach was employed to analyze the surveillance data and establish a back-propagation neural network model for epidemic prediction. Results The cumulative reported number of HFMD cases had reached 6139 in Lishui since 2007 till 2009 with an average annual incidence rate of 81.10/lakh, and significant difference was suggested in the incidence rate between individual years (P0.01). The patients were distributed throughout the counties and districts of the city. The highest incidence was in the most economically developed counties, mainly Liandu district, where the incidence was 596.80/lakh. Most cases were found from May to October, accounting for 80.38%. Children aged below five years were mostly affected, consisting of mainly scattered and kindergarten children. The predicted numbers of cases from January to June in 2010 were 17, 17, 20, 100, 181 and 679, respectively. Conclusion Significant differences were found in the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease between different time, regions, sexes and ages, in addition to the rising trend of the epidemic prevalence. The predicted epidemic situation for 2010 was similar to those in 2007 - 2009.

     

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