徐娜, 霍飞, 刘长娜, 盛艳霞. ARIMA模型在梅毒预测中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2011, 26(2): 103-105,109. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.02.007
引用本文: 徐娜, 霍飞, 刘长娜, 盛艳霞. ARIMA模型在梅毒预测中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2011, 26(2): 103-105,109. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.02.007
XU Na, HUO Fei, LIU Chang-na, SHENG Yan-xia. Application of ARIMA model in prediction of syphilis[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2011, 26(2): 103-105,109. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.02.007
Citation: XU Na, HUO Fei, LIU Chang-na, SHENG Yan-xia. Application of ARIMA model in prediction of syphilis[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2011, 26(2): 103-105,109. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.02.007

ARIMA模型在梅毒预测中的应用

Application of ARIMA model in prediction of syphilis

  • 摘要: 目的 构建天津市梅毒月发病率预测的ARIMA模型,为梅毒防控工作提供参考依据。 方法 利用天津市1996 - 2008年梅毒月发病率资料,应用SPSS 15.0统计软件包,拟合构建最佳ARIMA模型。利用2009年梅毒月发病率资料对模型的预测效果进行评价,并对天津市2010年月梅毒发病率进行预测,构建梅毒月发病率预测最佳模型,为今后梅毒预防控制工作提供参考依据。 结果 拟合ARIMA(2,1,0),(0,1,1)模型为天津市梅毒月发病率预测的最佳模型,该模型具有较高的预测精度,预测值与实际值较为接近,且实际值均在预测值的95%可信区间范围内。 结论 ARIMA模型能较好的预测梅毒发病率的变化趋势,为梅毒预防控制措施的制定提供重要依据。

     

    Abstract: Objective To establish an ARIMA model for the prediction of monthly incidence of syphilis in Tianjin, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease. Methods The fittest ARIMA model was established by using monthly incidence data of syphilis in Tianjin from 1996 to 2008 and SPSS 15.0 statistical software. Monthly incidence data of syphilis in 2009 were used to evaluate the prediction results of the model, and the monthly incidence of syphilis in 2010 was predicted by using the model. Results The ARIMA (2,1,0), (0,1,1) model was the fittest model to predict the monthly incidence of syphilis in Tianjin, which had high precision-the predicting value was close to the true value and the true value was within the 95% confidence interval of the predicting value. Conclusion ARIMA model could be used to predict the incidence trend of syphilis and provide evidence for the development of syphilis prevention and control measures.

     

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