张世勇, 高秋菊. 应用回归法预测石家庄市细菌性痢疾发病[J]. 疾病监测, 2011, 26(3): 238-240. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.03.023
引用本文: 张世勇, 高秋菊. 应用回归法预测石家庄市细菌性痢疾发病[J]. 疾病监测, 2011, 26(3): 238-240. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.03.023
ZHANG Shi-yong, GAO Qiu-ju. Prediction of dysentery incidence by regression analysis in Shijiazhuang municipality[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2011, 26(3): 238-240. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.03.023
Citation: ZHANG Shi-yong, GAO Qiu-ju. Prediction of dysentery incidence by regression analysis in Shijiazhuang municipality[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2011, 26(3): 238-240. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.03.023

应用回归法预测石家庄市细菌性痢疾发病

Prediction of dysentery incidence by regression analysis in Shijiazhuang municipality

  • 摘要: 目的 预测石家庄市细菌性痢疾(菌痢)的流行趋势,为进一步制订防治对策提供参考依据。 方法 运用Excel软件对该地区2001 - 2009年的菌痢发病率进行二次多项式拟合,并根据所建立的预测方程对2010年的菌痢发病进行外推预测,分析其变化趋势。 结果 建立的石家庄市2001 - 2009年的菌痢发病预测模型为: y=0.4748x2-8.8683x+60.542,决定系数 R2=0.9288,模型拟合效果良好。 结论 石家庄市近年来的菌痢发病呈逐年下降趋势,预计2010年的菌痢发病率为19.3390/10万。

     

    Abstract: Objective To predict the incidence trend of dysentery in Shijiazhuang and provide scientific evidence for the development of prevention and control measures. Methods Quadratic polynomial fitting was made on the incidence of dysentery from 2001 to 2009 by using Excel software, and extrapolative prediction of incidence of dysentery in 2010 was made based on the established equation, the changing trend was analyzed. Results The established prediction model of the incidence of dysentery from 2001 to 2009 is y=0.4748x2-8.8683x+60.542, with the coefficient of determination R2 of 0.9288. The model fits well. Conclusion The incidence of dysentery declined steadily in recent years in Shijiazhuang, the incidence of dysentery was predicted to be 19.3390/lakh in 2010.

     

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