叶敏, 易波. 2008 - 2010年浙江省宁波市传染病自动预警信息分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2011, 26(7): 531-534. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.07.010
引用本文: 叶敏, 易波. 2008 - 2010年浙江省宁波市传染病自动预警信息分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2011, 26(7): 531-534. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.07.010
YE Min, YI Bo. Performance of communicable disease automatic early warning information system in Ningbo city in Zhejiang province,2008 - 2010[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2011, 26(7): 531-534. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.07.010
Citation: YE Min, YI Bo. Performance of communicable disease automatic early warning information system in Ningbo city in Zhejiang province,2008 - 2010[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2011, 26(7): 531-534. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2011.07.010

2008 - 2010年浙江省宁波市传染病自动预警信息分析

Performance of communicable disease automatic early warning information system in Ningbo city in Zhejiang province,2008 - 2010

  • 摘要: 目的 了解2008 - 2010年宁波市传染病自动预警运行现状,为探索完善传染病自动预警工作模式,提高预警工作质效提供依据。 方法 应用描述性流行病学方法对2008 - 2010年宁波市传染病自动预警资料进行分析。 结果 2008年4月21日至2010年12月31日宁波市传染病自动预警系统共发出14 581条预警信号,经现场调查确认暴发/流行17条;涉及24个病种,前5位依次为其他感染性腹泻、流行性腮腺炎、麻疹、风疹和急性出血性结膜炎;预警信号数高峰在5-7月和9月;预警响应时间中位数为1 h,现场调查比填报异常卡平均提前80 h;预警系统阳性预测值仅为0.12%,灵敏度为53.13%。 结论 传染病自动预警系统运行良好,在霍乱等重点传染病探测上发挥了重要作用,但现有预警工作机制及预警参数设置仍有待改进与调整;同时应建立针对评价传染病自动预警的金标准,更为科学地评价预警系统功效。

     

    Abstract: Objective To understand the performance of communicable disease automatic early warning information system in Ningbo during 2008 - 2010 and provide scientific evidence for the improvement of the early warning system. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on the data obtained from the communicable disease early warning information system. Results Totally 14 581 warnings about disease outbreaks were released by the warning system from 21 April 2008 to 31 December 2010, and 17 of them were confirmed by field investigation. In these outbreaks, 24 communicable diseases were identified, and the first 5 diseases were other infectious diarrhea, mumps, measles, rubella and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis. The warnings were mainly released during May-July and in September. The median response time was 1 hour, and the field investigations were conducted averagely 80 hours before online reporting. The positive predictive value of the warning system was only 0.12%, the sensitivity was 53.13%. Conclusion The performance of communicable disease automatic early-warning system was good in Ningbo, which played an important role in the early detection of priority disease as cholera. However, the warning parameters and mechanism should be further adjusted and improved, and gold standard should be set for the scientific evaluation of communicable disease early warning.

     

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