曹洋, 洪志恒, 金连梅, 欧剑鸣, 洪荣涛. 2011-2012年全国手足口病疫情监测分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2013, 28(12): 975-980. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.12.006
引用本文: 曹洋, 洪志恒, 金连梅, 欧剑鸣, 洪荣涛. 2011-2012年全国手足口病疫情监测分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2013, 28(12): 975-980. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.12.006
CAO Yang, HONG Zhi-heng, JIN Lian-mei, OU Jian-ming, HONG Rong-tao. Surveillance of hand foot and mouth disease in China, 2011-2012[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2013, 28(12): 975-980. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.12.006
Citation: CAO Yang, HONG Zhi-heng, JIN Lian-mei, OU Jian-ming, HONG Rong-tao. Surveillance of hand foot and mouth disease in China, 2011-2012[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2013, 28(12): 975-980. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.12.006

2011-2012年全国手足口病疫情监测分析

Surveillance of hand foot and mouth disease in China, 2011-2012

  • 摘要: 目的 分析2011-2012年全国手足口病流行特征,探讨其流行规律。方法 利用《疾病监测信息报告管理系统》中全国2011-2012年手足口病实时统计个案信息及第六次全国人口普查数据,应用SAS 9.2软件,对两年间手足口病的三间分布进行描述分析,计算罹患率、重症率、病死率、重症病死率及病原分型构成比等指标,趋势比较采用Cochran-Armitage趋势检验,不同病毒型别对疾病转归的影响分析采用非条件logistic回归计算比值比,探索影响疾病转归的因素。结果 2011-2012年的年均罹患率为138.60/10万,重症率10.50,病死率0.29,重症病死率27.23。5 7月的病例数、重症数和死亡数分别占全年的49.90%、57.19%和53.88%。全国各地域中华南地区罹患率最高(330.95/10万),重症率最高为华中地区(18.62)、病死率和重症病死率以西南地区最高(0.71,45.72)。病例发生重症和死亡的风险随年龄增加递减,年龄0~岁组发生重症和死亡的风险分别是10岁组的4.1倍(OR=4.10,95%CI:3.16~5.31)和12.93倍(OR=12.93,95%CI:1.81~92.36)。肠道病毒71型(EV71)感染者与感染其他肠道病毒者相比,发生重症的风险增加1.77倍(OR=2.77,95%CI:2.65~2.89),发生死亡的风险增加10.04倍(OR=11.04,95%CI:7.62~16.02)。结论 夏季为手足口病高发季节,华中地区发生手足口病重症率最高,西南地区病死率和重症病死率最高,低龄幼儿和EV71感染者是手足口病发生重症和死亡的高危人群。

     

    Abstract: Objective To understand the epidemiology characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and risk factors for severe cases in China during 2011-2012. Methods The descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on the incidence data of HFMD in China during this period, which were collected from national disease reporting information system, with software SAS 9.2 and the data from 6th national population census were also used to understand its attack rate, case severity rate (CSR), case fatality rate (CFR) and severe case fatality rate (SCFR) and pathogen constituent. And the effects of potential risk factors were evaluated with unconditional logistic regression models. Results During 2011-2012, the attack rate of HFMD in China was 138.60/lakh, the CSR was 10.50, the CFR was 0.29 and the SCFR was 27.23. The cases, severe cases and deaths occurred during May-July accounted for 49.90%, 57.19% and 53.88% of the total respectively. The attack rate was highest in southern region (330.95/lakh), the CSR was highest in central region (18.62) and the CFR and SCFR were highest in southwestern region (0.71,45.72). The risks of severe case and death declined with age significantly. The risks of severe case and death in age group 0 year was 4.1 times (OR=4.10,95%CI:3.16-5.31) and 12.93 times (OR=12.93,95%CI=1.81-92.36) higher than those in age group 10 years. The risk of severe case and death after EV71 infection were 1.77 times (OR=2.77, 95%CI=2.65-2.89) and 10.04 times (OR=11.04, 95% CI=7.62-16.02) higher than those after other enteric virus infection. Conclusion HFMD mainly occurred during summer. The CSR was highest in central region and the CFR and SCFR were highest in southwestern region. Sever cases and deaths were prone to occur in young children and EV71 infected people.

     

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