曹洋, 周蕾, 向妮娟, 邢薇佳, 陈涛, 孟玲, 涂文校, 洪志恒, 倪大新, 金连梅, 李群. 2014年1月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(1): 4-8. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.01.003
引用本文: 曹洋, 周蕾, 向妮娟, 邢薇佳, 陈涛, 孟玲, 涂文校, 洪志恒, 倪大新, 金连梅, 李群. 2014年1月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(1): 4-8. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.01.003
CAO Yang, ZHOU Lei, XIANG Ni-juan, XING Wei-jia, CHEN Tao, MENG Ling, TU Wen-xiao, HONG Zhi-heng, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei, LI Qun. Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China, January 2014[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(1): 4-8. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.01.003
Citation: CAO Yang, ZHOU Lei, XIANG Ni-juan, XING Wei-jia, CHEN Tao, MENG Ling, TU Wen-xiao, HONG Zhi-heng, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei, LI Qun. Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China, January 2014[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(1): 4-8. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.01.003

2014年1月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China, January 2014

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2014年1月中国(未包括香港、澳门和台湾地区)突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。方法 根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法以视频会议形式邀请全国24个省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,1月全国突发公共卫生事件报告起数和病例数较前期将有所下降。非职业性一氧化碳中毒仍处高发时期,传染病事件以水痘、流行性感冒和流行性腮腺炎等呼吸道疾病为主;目前正值流感流行季节,我国南、北方省份流感活动继续保持高水平,预计全国范围流感样病例百分比(ILI%)就诊数和流感病毒检测阳性率仍较高;在人-禽接触(暴露)方式未得到根本性改变的情况下,预计未来数月(尤其春节前后)我国发生人感染H7N9禽流感及其他型别禽流感病例的风险将增加;春节临近,因中东地区务工人员回国人数增加而发生中东呼吸综合征输入病例的可能性有所增加,但导致国内暴发或流行的可能性依然较小;近期,各地仍应警惕学校或托幼机构发生感染性腹泻病暴发。春节期间,人员往来密集且集体聚餐增多,呼吸道疾病及食物中毒发生的可能性大大增加。近期我国及部分国家地区正在发生的一些传染病疫情及突发公共卫生事件,也为我国公民健康带来一定风险。结论 2014年1月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,疫情将有所下降;需重点关注人感染H7N9禽流感、流行性感冒、中东呼吸综合征等引发的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in January 2014. Methods Semi-structured interviews and discussions among subject matter experts based on surveillance data and public institute bulletins, et al. And 24 provincial level CDCs attended the conference through video. Results According to the surveillance data of infectious disease and public health emergency, the occurrence of public health emergency events in January will be getting down. As the temperature is getting lower, the risk of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning is still high. The respiratory diseases, such as the varicella, influenza and mumps, takes the most part of the infectious diseases. The activity of influenza virus in northern and southern China continues to be robust. The outpatient visit due to influenza like illness(ILI) and positive rate of influenza virus will be getting higher. The risk of human infection of H7N9 virus in mainland on the following months, especially around the Spring Festival, may increase if the mode of poultry breeding, circulation, trade and human-poultry contact didn't change fundamentally. With the approaching of Spring Festival, the risk of reporting imported MERS cases is increasing as the returning migrant workers coming back to their hometowns, but the risk of outbreak is still low. We need to strengthen surveillance and preparedness for infectious diarrhea disease events which usually happened in school and nursery school. With the growing of personnel flow and community meals, as well as some of countries and China reported several infectious diseases recently, the risk of respiratory diseases and food poisoning disease is high. Conclusion It is expected that the national public health emergencies and epidemic situation of infectious diseases in January 2014 would be similar as the January before, namely at a lower level. We need to strengthen the surveillance and preparedness for A(H7N9) viruses, influenza virus and MERS.

     

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