郑庆鸣, 李媛, 王铁强, 孔东风, 吕秋莹. WSARE 3.0算法在深圳市流行性腮腺炎暴发早期预警中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(5): 399-402. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.05.016
引用本文: 郑庆鸣, 李媛, 王铁强, 孔东风, 吕秋莹. WSARE 3.0算法在深圳市流行性腮腺炎暴发早期预警中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(5): 399-402. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.05.016
ZHENG Qing-ming, LI Yuan, WANG Tie-qiang, KONG Dong-feng, LYU Qiu-ying. Applicability of WSARE 3.0 algorithms in early warning of mumps outbreak in Shenzhen[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(5): 399-402. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.05.016
Citation: ZHENG Qing-ming, LI Yuan, WANG Tie-qiang, KONG Dong-feng, LYU Qiu-ying. Applicability of WSARE 3.0 algorithms in early warning of mumps outbreak in Shenzhen[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(5): 399-402. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.05.016

WSARE 3.0算法在深圳市流行性腮腺炎暴发早期预警中的应用

Applicability of WSARE 3.0 algorithms in early warning of mumps outbreak in Shenzhen

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨WSARE 3.0算法应用于深圳市传染病早期预警的适用性。 方法 采用基于贝叶斯网络基线的 WSARE 3.0算法对2013年深圳市流行性腮腺炎模拟实时监测预警。 结果 WSARE软件探测到2013年深圳市街道层面有统计意义的流行性腮腺炎预警信号28次,其中3个特征变量联合异常变化的信号2次,2个特征变量联合异常变化的信号16次,预警高峰期为4-7月。发现了3次明显的聚集疫情,其中2起疫情被报告突发公共卫生事件,并对某一街道短期内病例数异常增高的现象持续发出14次预警信号。 结论 WSARE 3.0算法能较精确地探测到局部区域特定属性人群中的流行性腮腺炎疫情异常变化,在深圳市传染病的早期预警中具有一定的应用价值。

     

    Abstract: Objective To evaluate the application of WSARE 3.0 algorithms in the early detection of communicable disease outbreaks in Shenzhen. Guangdong province. Methods The real-time surveillance and early warning of the incidence of mumps in Shenzhen in 2013 was conducted by using WSARE 3.0 algorithms based on Bayesian Network. Results WSARE 3.0 algorithm generated 28 abnormal signals of mumps cases with statistical significance in Shenzhen in 2013. including 2 tri-component abnormal signals and 16 double-component abnormal signals. The peak of early warning was during April-July. Three severe mumps outbreaks were detected in communities, in which 2 were reported as public health emergency. Fourteen signals were generated for the abnormal increase of mumps cases in a community. Conclusion WSARE 3.0 algorithms could timely detect abnormal change of mumps cases in some specific groups in some local areas and can be used in early warning of communicable diseases in Shenzhen.

     

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