2014年7月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(7): 512-515. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.07.003
引用本文: 2014年7月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(7): 512-515. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.07.003
Risk assessment of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China, July 2014[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(7): 512-515. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.07.003
Citation: Risk assessment of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China, July 2014[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(7): 512-515. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.07.003

2014年7月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China, July 2014

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2014年7月我国(不包括香港、澳门和台湾地区)突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。 方法 根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,以视频会议形式邀请全国各省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。 结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计7月全国突发公共卫生事件会较6月有所下降。报告事件将以手足口病、水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、布鲁氏菌病、登革热等传染病为主,其次为食物中毒事件;近期,多地发生登革热输入病例,广东部分地区出现了本地感染病例,预计未来3~4个月将迎来登革热发病高峰;近期毒蘑菇引起的食物中毒事件明显增加,暑期因集体聚餐引发的食物中毒也将有所增加,同时应加强霍乱、伤寒等肠道传染病的防控工作;人感染H7N9禽流感仍将维持在较低水平;中东呼吸综合征存在输入病例的风险,但发生大规模疫情的可能性较低;西非埃博拉病毒病疫情近期有所上升,但传入我国的风险仍为低,输入病例导致该病在我国本土化和大范围播散的可能性极低。 结论 2014年7月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,事件数将下降;需重点关注我国霍乱、登革热及基孔肯雅热、食物中毒,同时关注中东呼吸综合征及西非埃博拉病毒病疫情输入我国的风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in July 2014. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted on the surveillance data of public health emergency and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference for the discussion and evaluation. Results According to the analysis of the surveillance data, the incidence of public health emergency in July would decrease, and the major forms would be the outbreaks of hand foot and mouth disease, varicella, influenza, mumps, brucellosis and dengue fever, followed by food poisoning. Imported dengue fever has occurred in some areas recently and indigenous infections were reported in some areas in Guangdong province. It is predicted that the incidence peak would occur in the coming 3-4 months. The incidence of food poisoning caused by poisonous mushroom increased obviously in recent months and the incidence of food poisoning due to contaminated food at diner party in summer might increase, so it is necessary to further strengthen the prevention and control of cholera, typhoid and other infectious diarrheal diseases. The incidence of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus would remain at low level. The risk of imported Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) still exists, but large scale outbreak might not occur. Ebola virus disease epidemic occurred and lasted in western Africa in recent months, but the risk of the disease's spreading to China is considered to be low. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergency or communicable disease in July would be similar to that in the same periods in previous years and start to decline. It is necessary to strengthen surveillance and preparedness for cholera, dengue fever or Chikungunya fever and food poisoning, as well as the risk of MERS and Ebola virus disease to China.

     

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