2014年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(10): 764-767. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.10.003
引用本文: 2014年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(10): 764-767. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.10.003
Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland China, October 2014[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(10): 764-767. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.10.003
Citation: Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland China, October 2014[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(10): 764-767. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.10.003

2014年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland China, October 2014

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2014年10月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 预计10月份仍将是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数较高的月份之一,全国总报告事件数和病例数将与9月相当。我国存在埃博拉出血热病例输入的风险,但综合疫情形势及我国的防控策略,发生境内疫情扩散的可能性低;但该病病死率极高,一旦出现输入性病例会造成较大的社会影响。未来1-2月全国登革热疫情将维持高位运行,存在疫情进一步扩散的风险,形势依然严峻。手足口病疫情处于秋季次高峰流行期,流行趋势将与往年相似,由于EV71的检出增加,重症和死亡人数较2013年同期可能有所增加。流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、水痘等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高。细菌性痢疾、病毒性腹泻等肠道传染病的发生风险仍较高。10月麦加朝圣期间,我国前往沙特的公民数量增多,中东呼吸综合征存在输入我国的风险。我国北方地区将逐步进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将有所增加。结论 2013年10月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,处于全年较高水平;需特别关注登革热疫情,重点关注埃博拉出血热疫情。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in October 2014. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of the previous surveillance data and incidence trend of public health emergencies in recent months, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be still high in October, similar to that in September. The risk of spread of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but according to the evaluation of current status of the epidemic and owing to prevention and control measures taken by China, the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is low. However, due to the high case fatality, the impact to the public health would be serious once the importation of the virus occurs. Dengue fever epidemic would last in the next 1-2 months, and the epidemic areas might expand. The situation is still challenging. Now it is the season of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and the incidence trend would be similar to those in previous years. The incidence of respiratory disease, such as influenza, mumps and varicela, would increase seasonally. Bacterial dysentery, viral diarrhea and other intestinal infections might still occur. October is the season to make a pilgrimage in Mecca, more Chinese would visit Saudi-Arabia, as the result, the risk of imported Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) exists. As the approaching of winter, the incidence of non occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would increase in northern China caused by coal-fired heating. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be high, similar to those during the same periods in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of dengue fever and EVD.

     

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