2008-2013年贵州省安顺市传染病自动预警运行情况分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(10): 822-826. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.10.017
引用本文: 2008-2013年贵州省安顺市传染病自动预警运行情况分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(10): 822-826. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.10.017
Performance of automatic early warning system for communicable diseases in Anshun, Guizhou,2008-2013[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(10): 822-826. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.10.017
Citation: Performance of automatic early warning system for communicable diseases in Anshun, Guizhou,2008-2013[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(10): 822-826. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.10.017

2008-2013年贵州省安顺市传染病自动预警运行情况分析

Performance of automatic early warning system for communicable diseases in Anshun, Guizhou,2008-2013

  • 摘要: 目的 分析2008-2013年传染病自动预警信息系统在贵州省安顺市的运行情况,探讨如何通过监测预警信息做好传染病疫情的防控工作。方法 利用 Excel 2003软件进行统计、汇总,应用描述流行病学方法对所获资料进行统计分析。结果 安顺市2008-2013年共接收了4059起传染病自动预警信息,覆盖了21个病种,初步判断为疑似事件的有393起,疑似事件率为9.68%,经专业人员现场核实为暴发的有59起,预警信号阳性预测值为1.45%。预警处置及时率为98.10%,不同预警方法的响应及时率不同,单病种预警响应及时率为91.45%;时间系列预警响应及时率为98.51%。结论 安顺市传染病自动预警系统运行状况良好,能及时发出传染病聚集性病例的预警,对早期发现暴发疫情起到非常重要的作用,但预警信号阳性预测值较低,县区疾控机构预警响应及时率需要提高。

     

    Abstract: Objective To evaluate the performance of automatic early warning system of communicable diseases in Anshun, Guizhou province during 2009-2013 and provide evidence for the improvement of the early warning system for the better prevention and control of communicable diseases. Methods The compile of related data was done by using Excel 2003 and descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on the data collected. Results A total of 4059 outbreak signals of communicable diseases were generated by the early warning system during this period, involving 21 diseases. After preliminary evaluation, 393 suspected outbreaks were classified(9.68%), and 59 outbreaks were finally confirmed. The positive predicting value of the signals was 1.45%. The timely response rate of the early warning signals was 98.10%. The timely response rate varied with the types of early warning(91.45% for single disease early warning, 98.51% for time series early warning). Conclusion The performance of automatic early warning system for communicable diseases in Anshun was well, through which the timely early warning of communicable disease case clustering could be generated, but the positive predicting value of the signals was low and the timely response rate of the early warning signals by county or district CDC needs to be improved.

     

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