孟玲, 张彦平, 周蕾, 郝利新, 向妮娟, 杨静, 曹洋, 洪志恒, 倪大新, 李群, 金连梅. 2015年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(3): 172-175. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.03.003
引用本文: 孟玲, 张彦平, 周蕾, 郝利新, 向妮娟, 杨静, 曹洋, 洪志恒, 倪大新, 李群, 金连梅. 2015年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(3): 172-175. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.03.003
MENG Ling, ZHANG Yan-ping, ZHOU Lei, HAO Li-xin, XIANG Ni-juan, YANG Jing, CAO Yang, HONG Zhi-heng, NI Da-xin, LI Qun, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, March 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(3): 172-175. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.03.003
Citation: MENG Ling, ZHANG Yan-ping, ZHOU Lei, HAO Li-xin, XIANG Ni-juan, YANG Jing, CAO Yang, HONG Zhi-heng, NI Da-xin, LI Qun, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, March 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(3): 172-175. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.03.003

2015年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, March 2015

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2015年3月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计3月全国总报告事件数和病例数较2月将有所增加。埃博拉出血热疫情输入我国的风险仍然存在,但发生较大规模扩散的可能性极低。近期我国大陆地区仍将继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感散发病例,其他可感染人类的禽流感可能有散发病例报告。随着学校陆续开学,部分地区可能出现流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、风疹及水痘等常见呼吸道传染病的聚集性疫情和食物中毒事件。随着气温升高,南、北方省份流感活动强度会继续下降。麻疹将进入流行季节,疫情持续上升并出现局部暴发流行的风险较高。中东呼吸综合征输入我国的风险依然存在,但发生大规模扩散的可能性极低。结论 2015年3月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,将较2月上升;需关注埃博拉出血热、人禽流感、流行性感冒、麻疹、中东呼吸综合征等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in March 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher in March than that in February, 2015. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is very low. Sporadic cases of human infection with H7N9 virus would continue to occur, and sporadic cases of other human infection of avian influenza virus might be reported. As the new semester started, common respiratory infections, including seasonal influenza, mumps, rubella and chicken pox, and food poisoning might occur in schools and child care settings. The activity of seasonal influenza would decrease as air temperatures rise. With the coming of measles season, the risk of local outbreaks would be high. The risk of importation of MERS to China still exists, but the possibility of MERS's transmission in China is very low. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be high in March 2015, similar to the same period in previous years. It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance and preparedness for EVD, human infection of avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, measles and MERS.

     

/

返回文章
返回