洪志恒, 常昭瑞, 袁媛, 周蕾, 王亚丽, 王哲, 孟玲, 曹洋, 金连梅. 2015年4月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(4): 256-259. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.04.003
引用本文: 洪志恒, 常昭瑞, 袁媛, 周蕾, 王亚丽, 王哲, 孟玲, 曹洋, 金连梅. 2015年4月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(4): 256-259. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.04.003
HONG Zhi-heng, CHANG Zhao-rui, YUAN Yuan, ZHOU lei, WANG Ya-li, WANG Zhe, MENG ling, CAO Yang, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, April 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(4): 256-259. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.04.003
Citation: HONG Zhi-heng, CHANG Zhao-rui, YUAN Yuan, ZHOU lei, WANG Ya-li, WANG Zhe, MENG ling, CAO Yang, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, April 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(4): 256-259. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.04.003

2015年4月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, April 2015

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2015年4月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险. 方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估. 结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往流行特点分析,预计4月全国总报告事件数和病例数较3月将有所增加.埃博拉出血热疫情输入我国的风险仍然存在,但发生较大规模扩散的可能性极低.近期我国内地仍将发生人感染H7N9禽流感散发病例,其他可感染人类的禽流感可能有散发病例报告.随着气温的逐渐上升,手足口病流行强度会逐渐增强,受优势病原的变化及异常气象条件影响,部分省份可能会出现病例异常增多或重症、死亡病例增多现象.中东呼吸综合征输入我国的风险依然存在,但发生大规模扩散的可能性极低. 结论 预计2015年4月全国总报告事件数和病例数较3月将有所增加;需重点关注埃博拉出血热、人感染禽流感、中东呼吸综合征、手足口病、有毒植物中毒事件对我国的影响.

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in April 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher in April than that in March, 2015. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is very low. Sporadic cases of human infection with influenza A (H7N9) virus would continue to occur, and sporadic cases of human infection with other avian influenza virus might be reported. As the rise of air temperature, the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) would increase and some provinces might experience the sudden increase of cases, including severe cases and deaths, as the results of the change in predominant pathogen and abnormal climate. The risk of spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) to China still exists, but the possibility of wide transmission in China is very low. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher in April than that in March in China in 2015. Close attention should be paid to EVD, human infection with avian influenza viruses, HFMD, MERS and food poisoning caused by poisonous plants.

     

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