李红兵, 何微, 王宏戈, 田辉. 2004-2013年陕西省宝鸡市流行性乙型脑炎流行特征分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(4): 287-290. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.04.011
引用本文: 李红兵, 何微, 王宏戈, 田辉. 2004-2013年陕西省宝鸡市流行性乙型脑炎流行特征分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(4): 287-290. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.04.011
LI Hong-bing, HE Wei, WANG Hong-ge, TIAN Hui. Epidemiology of Japanese encephalitis in Baoji, Shaanxi, 2004-2013[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(4): 287-290. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.04.011
Citation: LI Hong-bing, HE Wei, WANG Hong-ge, TIAN Hui. Epidemiology of Japanese encephalitis in Baoji, Shaanxi, 2004-2013[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(4): 287-290. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.04.011

2004-2013年陕西省宝鸡市流行性乙型脑炎流行特征分析

Epidemiology of Japanese encephalitis in Baoji, Shaanxi, 2004-2013

  • 摘要: 目的 通过分析陕西省宝鸡市流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)流行特征,为乙脑预防控制提供科学依据. 方法 使用1995-2013年的年发病率以自回归移动平均模型进行趋势分析,对2004-2013年宝鸡市乙脑疫情资料用描述性流行病学方法及圆形分布进行分析. 结果 2004-2013年宝鸡市共报告乙脑177例,死亡5例,年平均发病率为0.53/10万,病死率为2.82%,凤翔县、岐山县及陈仓区报告发病数较多,发病季节性特点明显,病例主要集中在7-9月,占乙脑发病总数的97.18%.男女性发病之比为0.86:1,患者职业以农民为主,占总数的66.67%.2011-2013年15岁以下年龄组无病例报告,50岁以上年龄组占发病总数的90.63%. 结论 宝鸡市近年乙脑发病出现小幅上升趋势,2014-2015年发病将有所下降,但是流行特征有所改变,发病以50岁以上年龄组为主,防控策略需要调整,应及时对重点人群开展乙脑疫苗接种等防控工作.

     

    Abstract: Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of Japanese encephalitis in Baoji, Shaanxi province, from 2004 to 2013 and provide evidence for the prevention and control of Japanese encephalitis. Methods Autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model was used to analyze the incidence trend of Japanese encephalitis in Baoji from 1995 to 2013. Then descriptive epidemiological analysis and circular distribution analysis were conducted on the incidence data of Japanese encephalitis in Baoji from 2004 to 2013. Results A total of 177 Japanese encephalitis cases, including 5 deaths, were reported during 2004-2013. The average annual incidence was 0.53/lakh, the case fatality rate was 2.82%. More cases were reported in Fengxiang, Qishan and Chencang. The seasonality of the disease was obvious, the annual incidence peak was during July-September, the cases during occurred this period accounted for 97.18%. The male to female ratio of the cases was 0.86:1. Farmers were mostly affected with cases accounting for 66.67%. No cases were reported in age group 15 years during 2011-2013. The cases in people aged 50 years accounted for 90.63%. Conclusion After the slight increase of Japanese encephalitis incidence in recent years,the incidence would decline during 2014-2015, but the incidence pattern would remain, and people aged 50 years would be still mostly affected. It is necessary to conduct the vaccination among the risk population.

     

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