涂文校, 向妮娟, 李昱, 邢薇佳, 周蕾, 袁辰, 李建东, 王霄晔, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 李雷雷, 金连梅. 2015年6月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(6): 436-439. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.06.003
引用本文: 涂文校, 向妮娟, 李昱, 邢薇佳, 周蕾, 袁辰, 李建东, 王霄晔, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 李雷雷, 金连梅. 2015年6月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(6): 436-439. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.06.003
TU Wen-xiao, XIANG Ni-juan, LI Yu, XING Wei-jia, ZHOU Lei, YUAN Chen, LI Jian-dong, WANG Xiao-ye, MENG Ling, HONG Zhi-heng, LI Lei-lei, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, June 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(6): 436-439. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.06.003
Citation: TU Wen-xiao, XIANG Ni-juan, LI Yu, XING Wei-jia, ZHOU Lei, YUAN Chen, LI Jian-dong, WANG Xiao-ye, MENG Ling, HONG Zhi-heng, LI Lei-lei, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, June 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(6): 436-439. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.06.003

2015年6月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, June 2015

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2015年6月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 广东发现的1例自韩国输入的中东呼吸综合征病例,病例在我国造成持续传播的可能性低。今年我国登革热疫情高峰可能提前到来,6月疫情将上升且形势较为严峻。手足口病仍呈上升态势,预计6月将为疫情高发期。西非埃博拉疫情已明显好转,利比里亚已控制疫情,几内亚和塞拉利昂也处于低水平流行。H7N9病原学特征、病例的主要感染途径和模式没有发生明显变化,仍将呈散发态势。今年5月发热伴血小板减少综合征疫情上升明显,6月疫情仍将有所上升,但出现较大规模流行的风险低。6月食物中毒将会上升,以微生物性食物中毒为主,有毒动植物及毒蘑菇是引起死亡的主要原因。结论 预计2015年6月全国总体报告的突发公共卫生事件数较5月将有所下降,主要是传染病突发事件下降所致,而食物中毒事件将上升。我国6月份需重点关注中东呼吸综合征、登革热和手足口病疫情防控。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in June 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results One imported case of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) from South Korea was detected in Guangdong province, but the risk of the further spread of MERS-CoV is low. In 2015, the incidence of dengue fever would peak early, and the situation would be more serious in June. The incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is still in increase and would peak in June. Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa has been mitigated dramatically, the disease has been under control in Liberia, and the transmissions in Guinea and Sierra Leone are at low level. Sporadic human infection with influenza A (H7N9) virus would still occur because no obvious changes in H7N9 virus' etiological characteristics and case's infection route and pattern were observed. The incidence of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) increased obviously in May, and would continue to increase in June, but the risk of large scale outbreak is low. The incidence of food poisoning would increase in June, which would be mainly caused by microorganisms, and the death due to food poisoning would be mainly caused by poisonous plants or mushrooms. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be lower in June than in May in China, which would be attributed to the decline of the incidence of communicable diseases, however, the incidence of food poisoning would increase. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of MERS, dengue fever and HFMD.

     

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