杜道法, 郭慧芬, 马飞飞, 郭立春, 吴朝学, 赵坚, 田志华, 涂文校. 定性和定量评估我国埃博拉病毒病输入风险的方法学探讨[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(7): 551-554. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.007
引用本文: 杜道法, 郭慧芬, 马飞飞, 郭立春, 吴朝学, 赵坚, 田志华, 涂文校. 定性和定量评估我国埃博拉病毒病输入风险的方法学探讨[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(7): 551-554. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.007
DU Dao-fa, GUO Hui-fen, MA Fei-fei, GUO Li-chun, WU Chao-xue, ZHAO Jian, TIAN Zhi-hua, TU Wen-xiao. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of risk of importation of Ebola virus disease to China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(7): 551-554. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.007
Citation: DU Dao-fa, GUO Hui-fen, MA Fei-fei, GUO Li-chun, WU Chao-xue, ZHAO Jian, TIAN Zhi-hua, TU Wen-xiao. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of risk of importation of Ebola virus disease to China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(7): 551-554. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.007

定性和定量评估我国埃博拉病毒病输入风险的方法学探讨

Qualitative and quantitative assessment of risk of importation of Ebola virus disease to China

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨我国输入性传染病的定性和定量评估方法。方法 通过我国(未含香港、澳门和台湾地区)埃博拉病毒病输入风险评估示例,介绍输入性传染病的评估方法。计算埃博拉病毒病的感染概率对输入风险进行定量评估,通过专家会商法和风险判定矩阵来予以定性判定输入后果严重性和最终风险等级。结果 本方法的步骤为风险路径评估、输入和进一步传播可能性评估、后果严重性评估、风险评价和不确定性分析。结论 用本研究定量评估方法能估计发生埃博拉病毒病输入病例的可能性,定性评估方法能估计输入后果严重性和风险等级,但本文定性和定量评估方法不适用于对其他新发传染病、不明原因疾病等暴发事件的快速风险评估。

     

    Abstract: Objective To introduce the qualitative and quantitative methods in assessing the risk of importation of infectious diseases to China. Methods The quantitative assessment of the spread risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China was conducted by calculating its infection probability, and the qualitative assessment of the severity of the EVD importation and the final risk level were conducted through expert counseling and risk matrix analysis. Results The assessment steps included transmission route estimation, importation and further spread estimation and importation severity, final risk and uncertainty estimations. Conclusion This quantitative assessment can estimate the likelihood of the importation of EVD to China, and this qualitative assessment can evaluate the severity and risk level of EVD's importation, but they are not suitable to be used in the rapid risk assessment of the outbreaks of other emerging infectious diseases and the diseases with unknown etiology.

     

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