洪志恒, 李中杰, 随海田, 王亚丽, 涂文校, 孟玲, 李雷雷, 金连梅, 倪大新. 2015年9月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(9): 702-705. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.09.003
引用本文: 洪志恒, 李中杰, 随海田, 王亚丽, 涂文校, 孟玲, 李雷雷, 金连梅, 倪大新. 2015年9月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(9): 702-705. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.09.003
HONG Zhi-heng, LI Zhong-jie, SUI Hai-tian, WANG Ya-li, TU Wen-xiao, MENG Ling, LI Lei-lei, JIN Lian-mei, NI Da-xin. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, September 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(9): 702-705. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.09.003
Citation: HONG Zhi-heng, LI Zhong-jie, SUI Hai-tian, WANG Ya-li, TU Wen-xiao, MENG Ling, LI Lei-lei, JIN Lian-mei, NI Da-xin. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, September 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(9): 702-705. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.09.003

2015年9月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, September 2015

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2015年9月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往流行特点分析,预计9月全国总报告事件数和病例数较8月将有所增加。中东呼吸综合征及埃博拉出血热输入我国的风险依然存在,但发生大规模扩散的可能性极低。随着天气转凉及学校开学,流行性感冒和手足口病等传染病的流行强度会逐渐增强,部分省份可能出现本地暴发疫情。未来一段时间仍是食物中毒和食源性疾病高发时期,尤其9月底10月初将迎来中秋、国庆两大节日,需继续做好食物中毒和食源性疾病暴发的防控。南方还将保持一段高温天气,登革热等虫媒传染病仍会对公共健康造成一定威胁。结论 预计2015年9月全国总报告事件数和病例数较8月将有所增加;需重点关注登革热、流行性感冒、手足口病、中东呼吸综合征、埃博拉出血热等传染病疫情可能造成的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in September 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts of all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of public health emergencies and communicable diseases, it is predicted that the numbers of public health emergencies and communicable disease cases would be higher in September than in August. The risks of Ebola virus disease (EVD) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) transmissions into China still exist, but the possibility of large scale spread is very low. As the falling air temperature and the coming of new school term, the incidences of communicable diseases, such as influenza and hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) would increase, and local outbreaks would occur in some provinces. It is still the season when food poisoning and foodborne disease occur frequently, so close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of food poisoning and foodborne disease as the coming of mid-autumn festival and national day vacation. Dengue fever and other insect-borne diseases still pose risk to public health in southern China. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidences of public health emergencies and communicable diseases would be higher in September than in August in China. Close attention should be paid to the possible public health risks caused by dengue fever, influenza, HFMD, EVD and MERS.

     

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