孟玲, 冉陆, 王亚丽, 周蕾, 牟笛, 祝菲, 涂文校, 洪志恒, 倪大新, 金连梅. 2015年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(10): 802-805. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.10.003
引用本文: 孟玲, 冉陆, 王亚丽, 周蕾, 牟笛, 祝菲, 涂文校, 洪志恒, 倪大新, 金连梅. 2015年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(10): 802-805. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.10.003
MENG Ling, RAN Lu, WANG Ya-li, ZHOU Lei, MU Di, ZHU Fei, TU Wen-xiao, HONG Zhi-heng, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in mainland China, October 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(10): 802-805. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.10.003
Citation: MENG Ling, RAN Lu, WANG Ya-li, ZHOU Lei, MU Di, ZHU Fei, TU Wen-xiao, HONG Zhi-heng, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in mainland China, October 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(10): 802-805. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.10.003

2015年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in mainland China, October 2015

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2015年10月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计10月全国总报告事件数和病例数将与9月相当。南方重点省份,尤其是广东、云南继续发生登革热暴发并扩散的风险较大。中东呼吸综合征输入我国的风险依然存在,但发生大规模扩散的可能性仍较低。近期我国内地出现人感染H7N9禽流感及其他可感染人类的禽流感散发病例的可能性将增大。流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、水痘等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高。诺如病毒所致病毒性腹泻将进入高发季节。我国北方地区将逐步进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将有所增加。结论 2015年10月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,将与9月相当;需关注登革热、中东呼吸综合征、人禽流感、流行性感冒、病毒性腹泻等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in October 2015.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergency events and cases in October 2015 would be similar to those in September 2015. The risk of occurrence of continuous dengue outbreaks and spread in southern provinces especially in Guangdong and Yunnan remains high. The risk of importation of MERS to China still exists, but the possibility of MERS's large-scale transmission in China is low. Sporadic cases of human infection with H7N9 virus and other avian influenza viruses would increase. The incidence of respiratory diseases such as seasonal influenza, mumps and varicela would increase seasonally. Epidemic season of viral diarrhea caused by Norovirus would come. As the approaching of winter, the incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning caused by coal-fired heating would increase in northern China. During the vacation of National Day, health departments should strengthen infectious disease surveillance, health supervision and emergency duty work.Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in October 2015 would be similar to those during the same periods in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of dengue, MERS, human infection of avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, and viral diarrhea.

     

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