李日健, 胡跃华, 郭莹, 于石成, 马家奇, 冯国双. 应用轨迹模型分析中国2004-2012年肝癌死亡率变化趋势[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(11): 935-939. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.11.011
引用本文: 李日健, 胡跃华, 郭莹, 于石成, 马家奇, 冯国双. 应用轨迹模型分析中国2004-2012年肝癌死亡率变化趋势[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(11): 935-939. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.11.011
LI Ri-jian, FENG Guo-shuang, HU Yue-hua, GUO Ying, YU Shi-cheng, MA Jia-qi. Trend of liver cancer mortality in China during 2004-2012 by using trajectory model[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(11): 935-939. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.11.011
Citation: LI Ri-jian, FENG Guo-shuang, HU Yue-hua, GUO Ying, YU Shi-cheng, MA Jia-qi. Trend of liver cancer mortality in China during 2004-2012 by using trajectory model[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(11): 935-939. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.11.011

应用轨迹模型分析中国2004-2012年肝癌死亡率变化趋势

Trend of liver cancer mortality in China during 2004-2012 by using trajectory model

  • 摘要: 目的 探索2004-2012年我国不同地区和城乡年龄别肝癌死亡率随年代变化的轨迹。 方法 从《全国疾病监测系统死因监测数据集》中选取2004-2012年肝癌地区别(东中西部)、城乡别(农村和城市)和 30岁年龄别(12个年龄组)的死亡率数据,共72种组合,用SAS 9.2软件拟合肝癌死亡率随年代变化的轨迹模型。 结果 根据轨迹模型评价指标,肝癌死亡率随年代变化的轨迹可分为3个亚组,第1亚组和第2亚组为线性下降趋势,第3亚组为三次项曲线,呈降-升-降的趋势。城市中,东中西部30~、55~和75岁各年龄组肝癌死亡率随年代变化的轨迹相同,为第1亚组,具有线性下降趋势。农村中,东中西部30~岁轨迹相同,东中西部50~64岁、东部65~69岁和西部65~74岁年龄组的轨迹相同,属于第2亚组,也有线性下降趋势;东中西部75岁及以上,东部和中部的70~74岁年龄组轨迹相同,属于第3亚组,呈降-升-降的趋势。在50~岁年龄组, 农村和城市的肝癌死亡率被划分为不同的发展轨迹,农村在第2亚组,城市属于第1亚组,农村居民肝癌的死亡率显著高于城市居民,在农村中部65~岁、东中部70~岁年龄组同样出现了这种趋势,农村肝癌死亡年龄比城市更早进入下一个更高死亡率亚组的发展轨迹。 结论 识别我国不同地区和城乡年龄别肝癌死亡率随年代变化的轨迹,有助于有针对性地制定相应的肝癌防治策略,降低我国肝癌死亡风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To understand the trajectory of age specific liver cancer mortality with year in different areas and in urban and rural areas in China from 2004 to 2012. Methods The data of age-specific liver cancer mortality in different areas (eastern, central and western) and in rural/urban were collected fromNational Death Cause Datasets of Disease Surveillance Systembetween 2004 and 2012. The trajectory model was used to analyze the change trend of liver cancer mortality by using software SAS 9.2. Results The trajectories of age specific liver cancer mortality in different areas and in urban/rural areas could be indicated as 3 kinds of curves according to the criteria of the evaluation, the first and second curves shown a downward linear trend, and the third one was a 'down-up-down' cubic curve. In urban area, the trajectories of liver cancer mortality showed a same liner decline trend in age groups 30-54, 55-74, and 75 years. In rural area, the trajectories for the age groups 30-49 years in the eastern, central and western areas were same. The trajectories for the age group 50-64 years in the eastern, central and western areas, age group 65-69 years in eastern area and for the age group 65-74 years in the western area were same, showing the second downward trend. The trajectories for the age group 75 years in the eastern, central and western areas, for the age group 70-74 years in the eastern and central areas and for the age group 65-69 years in the central areas were same, showing a down-up-down cubic curve. In the age group 50-54 years, the trajectories were different between urban area and rural area. In rural area it belonged to the second kind curve and in urban area it belonged to the first kind curve. The mortality in the rural area was higher that in the urban area. This phenomenon was observed in rural residents aged 65-69 years in the central area and rural residents aged 70-74 years in the eastern and central areas, the death age of liver cancer in the rural area was earlier than one in urban a reaa into the next higher trajectory subgroup. Conclusion Identifying the different trajectories of age-specific liver cancer mortality in different areas and in rural and urban area is helpful for taking targeted measures for liver cancer prevention and control to reduce the risk of liver cancer death.

     

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