洪志恒, 任瑞琦, 罗莉, 李越, 王亚丽, 向妮娟, 涂文校, 孟玲, 金连梅, 倪大新. 2015年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(12): 990-993. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.12.003
引用本文: 洪志恒, 任瑞琦, 罗莉, 李越, 王亚丽, 向妮娟, 涂文校, 孟玲, 金连梅, 倪大新. 2015年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(12): 990-993. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.12.003
HONG Zhi-heng, REN Rui-qi, LUO Li, LI Yue, WANG Ya-li, XIANG Ni-juan, TU Wen-xiao, MENG Ling, JIN Lian-mei, NI Da-xin. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, December 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(12): 990-993. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.12.003
Citation: HONG Zhi-heng, REN Rui-qi, LUO Li, LI Yue, WANG Ya-li, XIANG Ni-juan, TU Wen-xiao, MENG Ling, JIN Lian-mei, NI Da-xin. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, December 2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(12): 990-993. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.12.003

2015年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, December 2015

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2015年12月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计12月全国总报告事件数将有所上升,但不会超过往年同期水平。近期我国内地出现人感染H7N9禽流感及其他可感染人类的禽流感散发病例的可能性将增大。诺如病毒所致病毒性腹泻已进入高发季节。季节性流感等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高。埃博拉出血热输入我国的风险依然存在,但输入风险较前期继续下降。我国北方地区全面进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒人数将明显上升。结论 预计2015年12月全国总报告事件数和病例数较11月将有所增加;需重点关注人感染H7N9禽流感、诺如病毒腹泻、季节性流感、埃博拉出血热、寨卡病毒病等传染病以及非职业性一氧化碳中毒的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in December 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts from all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in December would be higher than that in November. The risk of sporadic human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) would increase. It is the high incidence season of norovirus caused diarrhea and influenza. The risk of Ebola virus disease transmission into China still exists, but the possibility of large scale spread is very low. In northern China, coal-burning heating would cause more carbon monoxide poisoning. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in December would be higher than that in November in 2015. Close attention should be paid to the risk of human infection of H7N9 virus, norovirus caused diarrhea, seasonal influenza, Ebola virus disease, Zika virus infection and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.

     

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