涂文校, 王亚丽, 杨磊, 李昱, 常昭瑞, 王哲, 段弘扬, 马岩, 丁凡, 李莉, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 金连梅. 2016年8月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(8): 624-627. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.08.003
引用本文: 涂文校, 王亚丽, 杨磊, 李昱, 常昭瑞, 王哲, 段弘扬, 马岩, 丁凡, 李莉, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 金连梅. 2016年8月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(8): 624-627. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.08.003
TU Wen-xiao, WANG Ya-li, YANG Lei, LI Yu, CHANG Zhao-rui, WANG Zhe, DUAN Hong-yang, MA Yan, DING Fan, LI Li, MENG Ling, HONG Zhi-heng, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies andcommunicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, August 2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(8): 624-627. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.08.003
Citation: TU Wen-xiao, WANG Ya-li, YANG Lei, LI Yu, CHANG Zhao-rui, WANG Zhe, DUAN Hong-yang, MA Yan, DING Fan, LI Li, MENG Ling, HONG Zhi-heng, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies andcommunicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, August 2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(8): 624-627. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.08.003

2016年8月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies andcommunicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, August 2016

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2016年8月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据既往传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,预计8月报告的突发公共卫生事件为全年较低水平。近期我国的寨卡病毒病、黄热病等蚊媒传染病输入可能性较年初有所下降,但蚊媒条件更加适宜,发生本地传播的风险逐渐升高;而登革热已开始在南方部分省份发生本地传播,进一步流行的风险加大。感染性腹泻病的流行强度会逐渐增强,容易出现暴发疫情。有毒野生菌、集体聚餐(如升学宴、农村喜丧宴)等导致的食物中毒风险较高。高温中暑事件将会持续高发。另外,8月份全国降水仍然较多,需要关注极端气象条件导致的洪涝灾害相关公共卫生风险。结论 2016年8月我国的突发公共卫生事件可能达到全年的最低水平,但仍需重点关注伊蚊媒介传染病(如寨卡病毒病、登革热、黄热病)、洪涝灾害,一般关注感染性腹泻病、食物中毒和高温中暑所引发的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in August 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be at low level in August, 2016. The risk of imported Zika virus disease and yellow fever would be lower than in early 2016, however, the condition of Aedes now is more favorable for their transmission. The local transmission of dengue fever has occurred in southern China, and the risk is expected to be higher in next month. The incidence of infectious diarrheal diseases would be higher and outbreak might occur. The risk of mushroom/food poisoning after dinner parties would be still at high level, and heatstroke might continue to occur. On the other hand, it is raining season now, more attention should be paid to flood related public health risk. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be at the lowest level in August 2016. However, major concern should be paid to the prevention and control of Aedes borne diseases (Zika virus disease, dengue fever and yellow fever) and flood related public health risk; and general concern should be paid to infectious diarrheal diseases, food poisoning and heatstroke.

     

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