李苑, 张浩洋, 张新东, 黄永香, 潘海珊. 时空扫描分析和圆形分布法探索手足口病聚集性的比较研究[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(8): 638-641. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.08.006
引用本文: 李苑, 张浩洋, 张新东, 黄永香, 潘海珊. 时空扫描分析和圆形分布法探索手足口病聚集性的比较研究[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(8): 638-641. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.08.006
LI Yuan, ZHANG Hao-yang, ZHANG Xin-dong, HUANG Yong-xiang, PAN Hai-shan. Comparative study on clustering in hand foot and mouth disease based on spatial and temporal scanning analysis and circular distribution[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(8): 638-641. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.08.006
Citation: LI Yuan, ZHANG Hao-yang, ZHANG Xin-dong, HUANG Yong-xiang, PAN Hai-shan. Comparative study on clustering in hand foot and mouth disease based on spatial and temporal scanning analysis and circular distribution[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(8): 638-641. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.08.006

时空扫描分析和圆形分布法探索手足口病聚集性的比较研究

Comparative study on clustering in hand foot and mouth disease based on spatial and temporal scanning analysis and circular distribution

  • 摘要: 目的 探索回顾性时空重排扫描统计量和圆形分布法在手足口病聚集性探测中的应用。方法 对深圳市宝安区2015年手足口病疫情资料进行回顾性时空重排扫描统计量计算,并与基于圆形分布法推导的聚集性结果进行比较。结果 回顾性时空聚集分析确定了6个可能的手足口病发病聚集区域,分别是西乡(2015.05.04-2015.07.12,P0.01)、新安(2015.05.02-2015.07.11,P0.01)、福永(2015.05.07-2015.07.08,P0.01)、石岩(2015.05.09-2015.07.12,P0.01)、沙井(2015.05.18-2015.07.09,P0.01)和松岗(2015.08.20-2015.10.05,P0.01),与圆形分布法计算的发病高峰期部分重叠,但前者能更敏感地探测到疾病的早期暴发。结论 回顾性时空重排扫描统计量是评价手足口病时空聚集性的有效方法,可为阐明手足口病流行规律及制定预防措施提供依据。

     

    Abstract: Objective To evaluate the application of retrospective spatial and temporal permutation scanning statistic and circular distribution method in the clustering detection of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD). Methods The retrospective spatial and temporal permutation scanning statistics was used to analyze the incidence data of HFMD in Bao'an district in 2015 with SaTScan 9.4, the results were compared with the clustering information obtained from circular distribution method. Results Six possible HFMD clusters were identified from January 2015 to December 2015 in Bao'an, i.e. the cluster in Xixiang (4 May 2015-12 July 2015, P0.01), the cluster in Xin'an (2 May 2015-11 July 2015, P0.01), The cluster in Fuyong (7 May 2015-8 July 2015, P0.01), the cluster in Shiyan (9 May 2015-12 July 2015, P0.01), the cluster in Shajing (18 May 2015-9 July 2015, P0.01),and the cluster in Songgang (20 August 2015-5 October 2015, P0.01).These clustering signals were partially consistent with those from circular distribution methods and would be more sensitive in early detection of HFMD outbreak. Conclusion Retrospective spatial and temporal permutation scanning statistic is effective in evaluating the spatial and temporal clustering of HFMD and providing evidence to identify the patterns of HFMD transmission and develop effective HFMD prevention and control measures.

     

/

返回文章
返回