张洪龙, 赖圣杰, 张子科, 耿启彬, 王丽萍, 兰亚佳, 杨维中, 李中杰. 2014年国家传染病自动预警系统运行结果分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(11): 896-902. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.11.004
引用本文: 张洪龙, 赖圣杰, 张子科, 耿启彬, 王丽萍, 兰亚佳, 杨维中, 李中杰. 2014年国家传染病自动预警系统运行结果分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(11): 896-902. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.11.004
ZHANG Hong-long, LAI Sheng-jie, ZHANG Zi-ke, GENG Qi-bin, WANG Li-ping, LAN Ya-jia, YANG Wei-zhong, LI Zhong-jie. Performance of China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in 2014[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(11): 896-902. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.11.004
Citation: ZHANG Hong-long, LAI Sheng-jie, ZHANG Zi-ke, GENG Qi-bin, WANG Li-ping, LAN Ya-jia, YANG Wei-zhong, LI Zhong-jie. Performance of China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in 2014[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(11): 896-902. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.11.004

2014年国家传染病自动预警系统运行结果分析

Performance of China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in 2014

  • 摘要: 目的 分析2014年国家传染病自动预警系统(预警系统)在全国的运行情况,为有效改进与完善预警系统提供依据。方法 收集2014年预警系统在中国内地31个省份对33种传染病产生的预警信号数量、响应情况和判断结果,分析预警信号的响应率和响应时间,并与预警系统2011-2013年的运行结果进行比较。结果 2014年预警系统共发出386 578条预警信号,信号响应率为99.24%(383 637条),(P25~P75)为1.0(0.4~3.8)h。2014年的信号整体响应率和24 h内响应率较2011-2013年水平有所提高。其中,固定阈值预警方法产生163 649条预警信号,预警信号响应率为99.21%(162 361/163 649),(P25~P75)为1.0(0.2~5.3)h;通过初步核实、现场调查与实验室检测,最终确认了80 923例病例,占预警信号数的49.50%。时间模型预警方法共产生222 929条预警信号,平均每县每周约产生预警信号1.48条,其中3159条预警信号(1.42%)经初步核实后被判断为疑似事件;预警信号响应率为99.26%(221 273/222 929),(P25~P75)为1.1(0.5~2.9)h。结论 2014年预警系统的预警信号响应率和响应及时性均保持较高水平,2014年的信号整体响应率和24 h内响应率较2011-2013年进一步提高,但疑似事件信号占全部预警信号的比例仍有待改善。

     

    Abstract: Objective To evaluate the performance of China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) in China, and provide evidence for the improvement of the system. Methods The data of the automated alerts generated by the system, the responses to the alerts and alert confirmation were collected from 31 provinces in China in 2014. The analysis results were compared with the performance of the system during 2011-2013. Results A total of 386 578 alerts were generated nationwide on 33 infectious diseases, in which 383 637 (99.24%) were responded, and the median (P25-P75) of time for response was 1.0 (0.4-3.8)h. The overall response rate and the response rate in 24 hours in 2014 were higher than those during 2011-2013. Among all the alerts, 163 649 were generated by fixed-value detection method, in which 162 361 had responses (99.21%), and the median (P25-P75) of time for response was 1.0 (0.2-5.3)h. After the preliminary data verification, field investigation, and laboratory test, 80 923 alerts of disease cases were confirmed, accounting for 49.50% of the total alerts. In addition, 222 929 alerts were generated by the temporal aberration detection methods with an average 1.48 alerts per county in a week, and 3159 suspected outbreaks were confirmed, accounting for 1.42% of the total alerts. The response rate was 99.26%, and the median (P25-P75) of time for response was 1.1 (0.5-2.9)h. Conclusion In 2014, the response rate of alerts generated by CIDARS and its timeliness remained at a high level. The overall alert response rate and the response rate within 24 hours were improved compared with those during 2011-2013, but the confirmation of the alerts for suspected outbreaks needs further improvement.

     

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