洪志恒, 冉陆, 杨静, 任瑞琦, 王亚丽, 孟玲, 涂文校, 金连梅. 2016年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(12): 980-983. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.12.003
引用本文: 洪志恒, 冉陆, 杨静, 任瑞琦, 王亚丽, 孟玲, 涂文校, 金连梅. 2016年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(12): 980-983. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.12.003
HONG Zhi-heng, RAN Lu, YANG Jing, REN Rui-qi, WANG Ya-li, MENG Ling, TU Wen-xiao, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, December 2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(12): 980-983. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.12.003
Citation: HONG Zhi-heng, RAN Lu, YANG Jing, REN Rui-qi, WANG Ya-li, MENG Ling, TU Wen-xiao, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, December 2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(12): 980-983. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.12.003

2016年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, December 2016

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2016年12月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计12月主要以发生在学校的水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、手足口病、其他感染性腹泻病等传染病暴发事件为主。人感染禽流感散发疫情将逐渐上升;流行性感冒发病水平将继续上升;寨卡病毒病输入我国的风险持续存在,输入后在南方蚊媒条件适宜的地区仍有引发本地传播的风险;病毒性腹泻暴发疫情将持续发生,且诺如病毒仍将为主要致病原。结论 预计全国2016年12月全国总报告事件数和病例数将较11月有所下降。需重点关注人感染禽流感、季节性流感、寨卡病毒病和病毒性腹泻等传染病的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in December 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data and the characteristics of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the outbreaks of communicable diseases, such as varicella, influenza, mumps, hand foot and mouth disease and others other infectious diarrheal diseases, might mainly occur in schools in December. The incidence of human infection with avian influenza virus and seasonal influenza would increase. The risk of importation of Zika virus disease to China still exist, and due to the mosquito activity in southern China, Zika virus might further spread after the importation. The viral diarrhea epidemic would continue to occur, and Norovirus might still be the main pathogen. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies, including case number, would be slightly lower in December than in November in 2016 in China. Close attention should be paid to human infection with avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, viral diarrhoea and Zika virus disease.

     

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