孟玲, 李超, 杨静, 常昭瑞, 任婧寰, 洪志恒, 涂文校, 倪大新, 向妮娟. 2018年3月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(3): 184-187. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.03.004
引用本文: 孟玲, 李超, 杨静, 常昭瑞, 任婧寰, 洪志恒, 涂文校, 倪大新, 向妮娟. 2018年3月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(3): 184-187. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.03.004
Meng Ling, Li Chao, Yang Jing, Chang Zhaorui, Ren Jinghuan, Hong Zhiheng, Tu Wenxiao, Ni Daxin, Xiang Nijuan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,March 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(3): 184-187. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.03.004
Citation: Meng Ling, Li Chao, Yang Jing, Chang Zhaorui, Ren Jinghuan, Hong Zhiheng, Tu Wenxiao, Ni Daxin, Xiang Nijuan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,March 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(3): 184-187. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.03.004

2018年3月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,March 2018

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2018年3月在中国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期和既往传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,预计3月中国大陆总报告事件数和病例数将较2月有所上升,主要以发生在学校的水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻病、手足口病等传染病暴发事件为主。中国大陆可能将继续出现人感染H7N9及其他亚型禽流感或动物流感散发病例。流感活动将进一步呈下降趋势。3月下旬起手足口病病例数将逐渐增多。非职业性一氧化碳中毒仍处于多发期。国际上,沙特阿拉伯的中东呼吸综合征、尼日利亚的拉沙热、巴西的黄热病输入中国风险低。结论 预计2018年3月中国大陆发生的突发公共卫生事件数将有所上升;需重点关注人感染禽流感可能构成突发公共卫生事件的风险;一般关注流行性感冒、手足口病、非职业性一氧化碳中毒相关事件的风险。无特别需要关注的境外突发公共卫生事件。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and imported one from other countries,which might occur in the mainland of China in March 2018. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the number of public health emergencies,including involved disease case number,would be higher in March than in February in 2018. The main public health emergencies might be the outbreaks of varicella,influenza, mumps,other infectious diarrheal diseases,and hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD)occurred in schools. Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9)virus and other subtype avian influenza viruses would continue to occur. The activity of seasonal influenza would continue to decrease. The HFMD case number would begin to increase gradually in late March. It is still the high incidence season of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning. The risks of importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome from Saudi Arabia,lassa fever from Nigeria and yellow fever from Brazil to the mainland of China would be low. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would increase in the mainland of China in March 2018. Close attention should be paid to the incidence of human infection with avian influenza virus,which might cause a public health emergency. General attention should be paid to the risks of seasonal influenza,HFMD and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning. No particular attention needs to be paid to the public health emergencies occurred in foreign countries.

     

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