涂文校, 罗莉, 靳淼, 汪立杰, 成君, 袁媛, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 向妮娟. 2018年4月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(4): 267-271. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.04.003
引用本文: 涂文校, 罗莉, 靳淼, 汪立杰, 成君, 袁媛, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 向妮娟. 2018年4月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(4): 267-271. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.04.003
Tu Wenxiao, Luo Li, Jin Miao, Wang Lijie, Cheng Jun, Yuan Yuan, Meng Ling, Hong Zhiheng, Xiang Nijuan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,April 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(4): 267-271. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.04.003
Citation: Tu Wenxiao, Luo Li, Jin Miao, Wang Lijie, Cheng Jun, Yuan Yuan, Meng Ling, Hong Zhiheng, Xiang Nijuan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,April 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(4): 267-271. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.04.003

2018年4月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,April 2018

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2018年4月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据既往监测数据,预计4月国内报告的事件数将较3月有所上升,主要以发生在学校的水痘、流行性腮腺炎、流行性感冒(流感)、其他感染性腹泻病、手足口病等传染病事件为主。流感疫情将进一步下降,进入非流行季节。目前正值高考、中考体检期间,报告的学生结核病患者可能会增多;各地基本公共卫生服务项目中的老年人体检即将陆续开展,老年人中的结核病报告数可能也会升高。许多人喜欢趁春季踏青时采摘一些新鲜野菜、野果食用,同时自身缺乏有毒植物鉴别能力,因此可能发生误采食有毒植物造成中毒或过敏事件。国际上,沙特阿拉伯的中东呼吸综合征、索马里的霍乱、巴西的黄热病和荷兰重配H2N1流感病毒输入我国风险低。结论 预计2018年4月我国大陆发生的突发公共卫生事件数将处于正常的季节性上升。境内无需要特别关注或重点关注的事件,需一般关注诺如病毒病、流感、肺结核和有毒植物中毒;无特别需要关注的境外突发公共卫生事件。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and the imported ones from other countries,which might occur in the mainland of China in April 2018. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be higher in April than in March 2018, mainly the outbreaks of chickenpox,mumps,influenza,other infectious diarrheal diseases,hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD)occurred in schools. The incidence of seasonal influenza will continue to decrease to off-season level. It is time of health examination for students attending college and senior high school entrance examinations,more tuberculosis(TB)cases might be reported in students. The TB cases reported in the elderly would also increase due to the services targeting seniors in primary health care successively conducted in different areas. Many people like to pick fresh wild vegetables and fruits to eat in spring outing,however,they lack the knowledge for identifying poisonous plants,so food poisoning or allergy events might occur resulting from the intake of poisonous plants. The risks of importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome from Saudi Arabia, cholera from Somalia,yellow fever from Brazil and reassortant influenza A(H1N2)virus from Netherlands to the mainland of China are low. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in April would has a normal seasonal increase in the mainland of China. However,there will be no events to which close attention should be paid,general attention should be paid to the public health risks of norovirus infection,influenza,TB and food poisoning caused by poisonous plants, and no particular attention needs to be paid to the public health emergencies occurred in other countries.

     

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