洪志恒, 宁桂军, 牟笛, 常昭瑞, 吴晓旻, 孟玲, 涂文校, 向妮娟, 倪大新. 2018年5月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(5): 355-358. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.05.003
引用本文: 洪志恒, 宁桂军, 牟笛, 常昭瑞, 吴晓旻, 孟玲, 涂文校, 向妮娟, 倪大新. 2018年5月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(5): 355-358. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.05.003
Hong Zhiheng, Ning Guijun, Mu Di, Chang Zhaorui, Wu Xiaomin, Meng Ling, Tu Wenxiao, Xiang Nijuan, Ni Daxin. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,May 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(5): 355-358. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.05.003
Citation: Hong Zhiheng, Ning Guijun, Mu Di, Chang Zhaorui, Wu Xiaomin, Meng Ling, Tu Wenxiao, Xiang Nijuan, Ni Daxin. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,May 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(5): 355-358. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.05.003

2018年5月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,May 2018

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2018年5月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计5月主要将以水痘、手足口病及流行性腮腺炎等传染病暴发事件为主,出现登革热等经伊蚊传播疾病的输入性风险将有所增加,全国手足口病流行强度将逐渐上升,微生物、有毒蘑菇和动植物引起的食物中毒事件将会有所增多。另外,随着疾病监测水平的提高,预计百日咳报告病例数仍可能呈现上升态势。结论 需一般关注登革热、百日咳、手足口病及食物中毒。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and the imported ones from other countries,which might occur in the mainland of China in May 2018. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the public health emergencies in May would mainly be the outbreaks of communicable diseases,such as chicken pox,hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD) and mumps. The possibility of importation of mosquito borne disease,such as dengue fever,would increase. And the epidemic level of HFMD would gradually rise. More food poisonings caused by microbe,poisonous mushroom,flora and fauna might occur. Due to the enhancement of surveillance capacity,the reported pertussis cases would still be in increase. Conclusion General attention should be paid to the public health risks of dengue fever,pertussis,HFMD and food poisoning.

     

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