涂文校, 刘小波, 罗莉, 付士红, 王霄晔, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 向妮娟, 施国庆. 2018年10月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(10): 799-802. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.003
引用本文: 涂文校, 刘小波, 罗莉, 付士红, 王霄晔, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 向妮娟, 施国庆. 2018年10月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(10): 799-802. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.003
Wenxiao Tu, Xiaobo Liu, Li Luo, Shihong Fu, Xiaoye Wang, Ling Meng, Zhiheng Hong, Nijuan Xiang, Guoqing Shi. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, October 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(10): 799-802. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.003
Citation: Wenxiao Tu, Xiaobo Liu, Li Luo, Shihong Fu, Xiaoye Wang, Ling Meng, Zhiheng Hong, Nijuan Xiang, Guoqing Shi. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, October 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(10): 799-802. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.003

2018年10月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, October 2018

  • 摘要: 目的评估2018年10月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计10月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将比9月有所上升,可能以水痘、手足口病、登革热、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻病和流行性感冒等传染病以及食物中毒事件为主。 其中登革热仍将处于疫情高发期,虽然报告病例数比2017年低,但2018年发生本地传播的疫点较多,加上近期南方台风频繁登陆、蚊媒控制难度大,仍需关注疫情持高不下的风险。 随着气温下降,北方流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)疫情会出现下降。 食物中毒事件将会下降。 刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病输入我国的风险仍然较低。 需提示国庆长假期间注意旅行相关传染病。结论需要重点关注登革热,对于乙脑、食物中毒、埃博拉病毒病输入风险和国庆旅行卫生予以一般关注。

     

    Abstract: ObjectiveTo assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in October 2018.MethodsAn internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.ResultsIt is expected that the number of public health emergencies, which might be in forms of outbreaks of varicella, hand foot and mouth disease, dengue fever, mumps, infectious diarrhea, influenza and food poisoning, reported in October would be higher than that in September. The incidence of dengue fever would be still high, although the reported case number was lower than that in last year, there were more loci of the local transmission in 2018, and the mosquito control is more difficult due to the frequent typhoons in southern China, it is still necessary to pay attention to the risk of the dengue fever epidemic lasting for a long period. The incidence of Japanese encephalitis in northern China would decline as air temperature goes down, and the incidence of food poisoning would decrease too. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from the Democratic Republic of Congo into China is still low. The risk of travel related communicable diseases during the National Day vacation might be high.ConclusionClose attention should be paid to the public health risk of dengue fever, and general attention should be paid to Japanese encephalitis, food poisoning, the risk of imported EVD, and the travel related communicable diseases.

     

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