吴可可, 谢爱蓉, 王建, 虞成超, 钭慧芬, 朱传新, 郑文力. 利用logistic回归模型对艾滋病病毒抗体不确定者转归分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(10): 839-843. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.012
引用本文: 吴可可, 谢爱蓉, 王建, 虞成超, 钭慧芬, 朱传新, 郑文力. 利用logistic回归模型对艾滋病病毒抗体不确定者转归分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(10): 839-843. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.012
Keke Wu, Airong Xie, Jian Wang, Chengchao Yu, Huifen Tou, Chuanxin Zhu, Wenli Zheng. Application of logistic regression model to analyze outcome of HIV Western Blot-indeterminate patients[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(10): 839-843. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.012
Citation: Keke Wu, Airong Xie, Jian Wang, Chengchao Yu, Huifen Tou, Chuanxin Zhu, Wenli Zheng. Application of logistic regression model to analyze outcome of HIV Western Blot-indeterminate patients[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(10): 839-843. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.012

利用logistic回归模型对艾滋病病毒抗体不确定者转归分析

Application of logistic regression model to analyze outcome of HIV Western Blot-indeterminate patients

  • 摘要: 目的利用logistic回归模型,分析艾滋病病毒(HIV)抗体不确定者的初筛、免疫印迹试验(WB)条带结果和其随访阳转的关系,提高对转归的预判断。方法收集2012 — 2016年HIV抗体不确定者酶标、硒标结果、WB条带结果,用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线确定酶联伯乐试剂阈值,用logistic回归筛选WB条带的危险因素并建立预测模型。结果79份不确定标本中,首次2种初筛结果都阳性与最终随访确证阳性符合率高达96.29%。 ROC曲线确定伯乐试剂的特定阈值为8,S/CO>8提示随访转归阳性概率大。最常见的带型分别为p24、gp160+p24和gp160+gp120+p24;其中p24带型随访阴性的比例最高,占77.27%,gp160+p24有或无其他条带随访阳性概率较大。 运用logistic回归模型筛选出gp160、p24、p17三个有意义的因素。结论初筛酶标、硒标检测结果双阳性,S/CO>8,gp160+p24有或无其他条带,随访结果为阳性概率较大。 联合初筛结果、带型情况可较为客观、准确地预测HIV不确定患者转归结果。

     

    Abstract: ObjectiveTo use logistic regression model to analyze the relationship between the initial screening results, WB bands and positive conversion in follow up in persons with indeterminate HIV antibodydetection results and provide evidence for the improvement of the prediction of patient outcome.MethodsThe results of ELISA (Bio-Rad), a rapid kit (Abbot Determine HIV-1/2), WB band in 2012–2016 were collected. The threshold of ELISA was determined by ROC curve. The risk factors of western blot bands and the predictive model were established by logistic regression.ResultsAmong 79 indeterminate samples, the positive coincidence rate of the first two initial screening results was as high as 96.29%. The specific threshold value of the Bio-Rad was 8 by ROC curve. S/CO>8 indicated a high probability of positive follow-up. The most common band patterns of HIV antibody-indeterminate samples were p24, gp160+p24, p160+gp120+p24 respectively. The results of the follow-up confirmatory tests showed that 77.27% of p24 band pattern was HIV antibody-negative and the positive rate of gp160+p24 with or without other band was high.Logistic regression model was used to screen the three significant factors of gp160, p24 and p17.ConclusionThe positive initial results, S/CO>8, gp160+p24 had or had no other brands, the follow-up results were positive.Combined initial screening and the band results could give an objective and accurate prediction.

     

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