黄春妍, 王海涛, 陆艳, 张钧, 王临池, 华钰洁, 黄桥梁. 1985-2017年江苏省苏州市居民肺癌死亡与潜在减寿趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(10): 870-874. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.018
引用本文: 黄春妍, 王海涛, 陆艳, 张钧, 王临池, 华钰洁, 黄桥梁. 1985-2017年江苏省苏州市居民肺癌死亡与潜在减寿趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(10): 870-874. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.018
Chunyan Huang, Haitao Wang, Yan Lu, Jun Zhang, Linchi Wang, Yujie Hua, Qiaoliang Huang. Analysis on trend of lung cancer death and potential years of life lost in residents in Suzhou, 1985–2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(10): 870-874. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.018
Citation: Chunyan Huang, Haitao Wang, Yan Lu, Jun Zhang, Linchi Wang, Yujie Hua, Qiaoliang Huang. Analysis on trend of lung cancer death and potential years of life lost in residents in Suzhou, 1985–2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(10): 870-874. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.10.018

1985-2017年江苏省苏州市居民肺癌死亡与潜在减寿趋势分析

Analysis on trend of lung cancer death and potential years of life lost in residents in Suzhou, 1985–2017

  • 摘要: 目的分析苏州市30余年的肺癌死亡情况,以了解肺癌对苏州市居民健康的影响,为评价肺癌相关的防治效果提供依据。方法利用描述流行病学方法分析1985 — 2017年肺癌死亡数据,应用SAS 9.4软件计算肺癌死亡率、标化死亡率、潜在寿命损失年(PYLL)、潜在寿命损失年率(PYLLR)、标化潜在寿命损失年率(SPYLLR)和平均潜在寿命损失年数(AYLL)等指标,进一步采用对数线性回归法计算指标年度变化百分比(APC)及其95% CI以评价其时间趋势。结果1985 — 2017年苏州市肺癌无论死亡率还是标化死亡率均呈现显著上升趋势,差异有统计学意义(APC=3.43%,95% CI:3.274 ~ 3.590,t=–39.692,P=0.000;APC=0.95%,95%CI:0.681 ~ 1.215,t=–5.698,P=0.000)。 男性肺癌年均死亡率是女性的3.01倍,差异有统计学意义(χ2=541.590,P=0.000)。 年龄别肺癌死亡率40岁前处于较低水平,之后上升较快,且从时间趋势来看,70 ~ 岁和80 ~ 岁年龄组上升趋势明显,差异有统计学意义(APC=2.37%,95%CI:1.991 ~ 2.745,t=–10.758,P=0.000;APC=5.61%,95%CI:5.034 ~ 6.188,t=–17.681,P=0.000)。 1985 — 2017年肺癌年均PYLL为10 866人年,PYLLR为1.98‰,SPYLLR为1.83‰,AYLL为9.97年,随着年份增加,年均PYLL和PYLLR均呈现显著上升趋势,差异有统计学意义(APC=1.48%,95% CI:1.238 ~ 1.732,t=–7.995,P=0.000;APC=0.98%,95%CI:0.707 ~ 1.249,t=–6.798,P=0.000);SPYLLR和AYLL均呈现下降趋势,差异有统计学意义(APC=–0.81%,95%CI:–1.113 ~ –0.513,t=5.533,P=0.000;APC=–0.55%,95%CI:–0.691 ~ –0.415,t=9.483,P=0.000)。结论苏州市居民肺癌死亡率呈现上升趋势,疾病负担日益加重,严重威胁着居民健康和生命,迫切需要社会各部门尽早采取有效干预措施控制肺癌的发病和死亡上升速度。

     

    Abstract: ObjectiveTo analyze the deaths of lung cancer in Suzhou in past three decades, understand the influence of lung cancer on the residents’ health in Suzhou, and provide scientific evidence for evaluating the effect of prevention and treatment of lung cancer.MethodsDescriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted by using the incidence data of lung cancer deaths in Suzhou from 1985 to 2017, software SAS9.4 was used to calculate the mortality, the standardized mortality rate, potential years of life lost (PYLL), potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR), standardized potential years of life lost rate (SPYLLR) and average years of life lost (AYLL), the annual percentage change (APC) of these indexes was calculated by logarithmic linear regression method and to evaluate its time trend.ResultsThe mortality rate of lung cancer, both the crude one and standard one, in Suzhou showed an obvious increase from 1985 to 2017 (APC=3.43%, 95% CI: 3.274–3.590,t=–39.692, P=0.000; APC=0.95%, 95% CI: 0.681–1.215,t=–5.698, P=0.000). The annual mortality rate of lung cancer in men was 3.01 times higher than that in women (χ2=541.590, P=0.000). The mortality rate of lung cancer was lower in age group <40 years, and then increased rapidly with age. In terms of the time trend, an obvious increasing tendency in mortality rate was observed in age groups 70–79 years and 80– years (APC=2.37%, 95% CI: 1.991–2.745,t=–10.758, P=0.000; APC=5.61%, 95% CI: 5.034–6.188,t=–17.681, P=0.000). The annual PYLL of lung cancer was 10 866 person year, the PYLLR was 1.98‰, the SPYLLR was 1.83‰ and the AYLL was 9.97 years during 1985–2017. With the pass of year, the annual PYLL and PYLLR showed significant upward trends, the difference was significant (APC=1.48%, 95%CI: 1.238– 1.732,t=–7.995, P=0.000; APC=0.98%, 95% CI: 0.707–1.249,t=–6.798, P=0.000). The others showed downward trends, the difference was significant (APC=–0.81%, 95% CI: –1.113– –0.513,t=5.533, P=0.000; APC=–0.55%, 95% CI: –0.691– –0.415,t=9.483, P=0.000).ConclusionThe mortality of lung cancer in residents in Suzhou is in increase and the burden of disease has become heavier. It is a serious threat to the residents’ health and life. It is urgent for all the social departments to take effective intervention measures to control the rising speed of the morbidity and mortality of lung cancer.

     

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