洪志恒, 李超, 杨静, 靳淼, 任婧寰, 黎丹, 涂文校, 孟玲, 施国庆, 向妮娟. 2019年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(1): 6-9. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.01.004
引用本文: 洪志恒, 李超, 杨静, 靳淼, 任婧寰, 黎丹, 涂文校, 孟玲, 施国庆, 向妮娟. 2019年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(1): 6-9. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.01.004
Zhiheng Hong, Chao Li, Jing Yang, Miao Jin, Jinghuan Ren, Dan Li, Wenxiao Tu, Ling Meng, Guoqing Shi, Nijuan Xiang. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, January 2019[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(1): 6-9. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.01.004
Citation: Zhiheng Hong, Chao Li, Jing Yang, Miao Jin, Jinghuan Ren, Dan Li, Wenxiao Tu, Ling Meng, Guoqing Shi, Nijuan Xiang. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, January 2019[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(1): 6-9. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.01.004

2019年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, January 2019

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2019年1月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 预计1月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较12月有所下降,可能以水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎及其他感染性腹泻病等事件为主。 我国内地可能将继续出现人感染禽流感散发病例。 流行性感冒活动水平将继续上升。 诺如病毒感染性腹泻病疫情下降,但仍将处于高发期水平,学校仍将出现聚集或暴发疫情。 刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情形势仍然严峻,不排除进一步扩散及病例输入我国的可能,但由输入病例导致大规模本地传播的可能性极低。 非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将继续高发。
    结论 需要重点关注流行性感冒、人感染禽流感、非职业性一氧化碳中毒,对于诺如病毒感染性腹泻及刚果埃博拉病毒病疫情予以一般关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in January 2019.
    Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.
    Results The incidence of public health emergencies reported in January would lower than that in December 2018, which might mainly be the epidemics of chickenpox, seasonal influenza, mumps and other infectious diarrheal diseases. Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza virus might still occur. The activity level of seasonal influenza would continue to rise. The incidence of norovirus caused infectious diarrhea declined but still remained at high level, and the outbreaks could still be witnessed in schools. The epidemic of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo is still serious, the possibility of imported cases to China still exists, but the risk of widespread in China caused by imported cases is very low. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would keep at high level in January.
    Conclusion Close attention should be paid to seasonal influenza, human infection with avian influenza virus and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning, and general attention should be paid to norovirus caused infectious diarrhea and Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

     

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