薛晓丹, 王德征, 张颖, 李威, 沈成凤, 庞硕, 江国虹. 2010-2016年天津市居民脑梗死发病特征及趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(4): 354-358. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.04.016
引用本文: 薛晓丹, 王德征, 张颖, 李威, 沈成凤, 庞硕, 江国虹. 2010-2016年天津市居民脑梗死发病特征及趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(4): 354-358. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.04.016
Xiaodan Xue, Dezheng Wang, Ying Zhang, Wei Li, Chengfeng Shen, Shuo Pang, Guohong Jiang. Incidence trend and characteristics of cerebral infarction in residents in Tianjin, 2010−2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(4): 354-358. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.04.016
Citation: Xiaodan Xue, Dezheng Wang, Ying Zhang, Wei Li, Chengfeng Shen, Shuo Pang, Guohong Jiang. Incidence trend and characteristics of cerebral infarction in residents in Tianjin, 2010−2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(4): 354-358. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.04.016

2010-2016年天津市居民脑梗死发病特征及趋势分析

Incidence trend and characteristics of cerebral infarction in residents in Tianjin, 2010−2016

  • 摘要:
    目的了解2010 — 2016年天津市居民脑梗死发病特征及变化趋势,分析其在不同特征人群中的特点,为制定防控对策提供参考依据。
    方法采用2010 — 2016年天津市脑梗死疾病新发病例监测数据,分析脑梗死发病率及其在不同年龄、性别、城乡之间的分布差异。 以2010年全国第六次人口普查为标准人口计算标化发病率。 率的比较采用χ2检验,发病率的时间趋势和年龄趋势分析采用趋势性χ2检验。 Joinpoint软件对7年发病率的变化进行分析,并预测2017 — 2020年发病情况。
    结果脑梗死患者初始发病平均年龄为65.50岁,吸烟率为32.18%,发病2次以上的比例为34.01%。 2010 — 2016年间天津市居民脑梗死粗发病率为379.70/10万 ~ 583.64/10万;标化发病率为212.40/10万 ~ 291.52/10万,均呈逐年上升趋势(P<0.001)。 农村上升趋势更加显著。 天津市居民男性脑梗死粗发病率在450.17/10万 ~ 698.82/10万,标化发病率在249.20/10万 ~ 350.34/10万;女性粗发病率为308.44/10万 ~ 467.87/10万,标化发病率为174.48/10万 ~ 232.85/10万,粗发病率和标化发病率男性均高于女性,且均呈上升趋势(P<0.001),不同年龄组男性均高于女性(P<0.001)。 根据预测,到2020年,天津市脑梗死发病率将达到808.58/10万,标化发病率为371.03/10万。
    结论天津市脑梗死发病7年来一直呈上升趋势,未发现降低的拐点,农村地区和男性人群上升趋势更加明显,应加强关注该疾病并采取有针对性的措施进行人群干预,以减少发病。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo investigate the incidence trend and characteristics of cerebral infarction in residents between 2010 and 2016, analyze the incidence differences in population with different characteristics, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of cerebral infarction.
    MethodsThe data of new cerebral infarction cases between 2010 and 2016 were collected from Tianjin Cerebral Infarction Surveillance System. The incidence of cerebral infarction and its distribution in different age groups, gender groups and urban or rural areas was analyzed. The population data based on the Sixth National Population Census in 2010 were used for standardized rate estimation. Difference among different groups was compared with χ2 test. The χtrend2 test was used to analyze the incidence trend with years and in different age groups. The change of the incidence during this period and prediction of the incidence during 2017–2020 were analyzed by using Joinpoint software.
    ResultsThe average age of initial cerebral infarction was 65.50 years, the smoking rate was 32.18%, and the recurrent rate was 34.01%. The incidence rate of cerebral infarction in Tianjin increased gradually from 2010 to 2016 with the crude incidence rate ranging from 379.70/100 000 to 583.64/100 000, and with the standardized incidence rate ranged from 212.40/100 000 to 291.52/100 000 (P<0.000 1). The increase in rural area was more obvious. The incidence rate was consistently higher in male residents (the crude incidence: 450.17/100 000–698.82/100 000, the standardized incidence rate: 249.20/100 000–350.34/100 000) than in female residents (the crude incidence rate: 308.44/100 000–467.87/100 000, the standardized incidence rate: 174.48/100 000–232.85/100 000, all P<0.001). And in all age groups, the incidences in men were higher than in women (P<0.001). According to the prediction, the incidence of cerebral infarction in Tianjin will reach 808.58/100 000, and the standardized incidence of the disease will be 371.03/100 000 by 2020.
    ConclusionThe incidence of cerebral infarction increased during the past 7 years. There was no turning point for decrease, and the increasing trend was more obvious in rural areas and in men. Attention should be paid to the disease and targeted interventions should be taken to reduce the incidence of cerebral infarction.

     

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