朱银潮, 王永, 李辉. 2004-2018年浙江省宁波市居民伤害死亡流行趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(11): 1036-1040. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.11.018
引用本文: 朱银潮, 王永, 李辉. 2004-2018年浙江省宁波市居民伤害死亡流行趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(11): 1036-1040. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.11.018
Yinchao Zhu, Yong Wang, Hui Li. Incidence trend of injury death in residents in Ningbo, 2004–2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(11): 1036-1040. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.11.018
Citation: Yinchao Zhu, Yong Wang, Hui Li. Incidence trend of injury death in residents in Ningbo, 2004–2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(11): 1036-1040. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.11.018

2004-2018年浙江省宁波市居民伤害死亡流行趋势分析

Incidence trend of injury death in residents in Ningbo, 2004–2018

  • 摘要:
    目的了解浙江省宁波市居民伤害死亡水平及流行趋势。
    方法使用2004 — 2018年宁波市户籍居民死因监测数据,采用粗死亡率和标化死亡率拟合线性回归来分析宁波市全人群及城市男、女性,农村男、女性4个亚人群伤害死亡的流行趋势。
    结果宁波市居民伤害标化死亡率从2004年的48.47/10万下降至2018年的26.81/10万,期间各年的标化死亡率呈明显下降趋势(β=−0.039,P<0.01)。 伤害标化死亡率男、女性别比为1.74,各年呈明显下降趋势(β=−0.021,P<0.01)。 伤害标化死亡率农村城市比为1.38,但各年无明显变化(β=−0.010,P=0.131)。 伤害死亡居民的中位年龄从2004年的54岁逐年上升到2018年的80岁(β=1.861,P<0.01)。 机动车交通事故、溺水标化死亡率在4个亚人群呈下降趋势,跌落在4个亚人群呈上升趋势,中毒和自杀只在农村人群中呈下降趋势。
    结论近年来宁波市居民伤害死亡水平一直处于下降趋势,但伤害死亡人群的年龄不断上升,城乡地域差异仍存在,性别差异正在逐渐缩小。 部分亚人群是机动车交通事故、跌落、溺水和自杀的高危人群,需要采取针对性的防控措施。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo analyze the incidence level and trend of injury death in the residents in Ningbo of Zhejiang province.
    MethodsThe incidence data of injury-related deaths in Ningbo during 2004–2018, collected through the death registry system in Ningbo, were analyzed by using linear regression models to understand the epidemiological characteristics of injury death in total population and the following major 4 subgroups: urban males, urban females, rural males and rural females.
    ResultsThe annual standardized injury mortality rate decreased significantly from 48.47/100 000 person-years in 2004 to 26.81/100 000 person-years in 2018 in total population (β=−0.039, P<0.01). The average male to female ratio of annual standardized injury mortality rate was 1.74, with a significant decrease (β=−0.021, P<0.01). And the average rural to urban ratio of annual standardized injury mortality rate was 1.38, with no obvious change (β=−0.010, P=0.131). And the mean age of injury death cases increased significantly from 54 years old in 2004 to 80 years old in 2018 (β=1.861, P<0.01). The standardized mortality rates of motor vehicle traffic accident and drowning dropped and fall increased in all the 4 sub-groups. The standardized mortality rates of poisoning and suicide declined only in rural residents.
    ConclusionThough the injury mortality rate was in decline in Ningbo in recent years, the age of injury death cases was in increase. The difference in injury mortality still existed between urban area and rural area, but the gender specific difference became smaller. It is necessary to take target prevention and control measures in populations at high risks for motor vehicle traffic accident, fall, drowning and suicide.

     

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